Estimates

Why we're bad at them and how to get better

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Backed Engineer

Organizer

@raiderrobert 

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What is an estimate?

A forecast about the future

Weather: One of the most studied areas for prediction can only manage to predict up to 5 days out with any amount of confidence.

Normal Reaction of Devs asked to Estimate once they know this:

So how long will the project take?

How do we bring process (and sanity) to what is otherwise random guesses?

2 Categories

• Break up the estimates
  • Into smaller ones (bottom-up)
  • Across to more people (consensus)
  • Into more estimates per thing (3-point)
• Use historics
  • By comparables (analogues) 
  • By rates (parametric)
  • By estimator deviation

No "right" way to do this. Your mileage will vary.