Unlocking Quant Skills

Data in the Classroom

Data in Journalism

Path

• Northwestern:
  • BA in Philosophy + Minor in Cognitive Science
  • MS in Computer Science
  • Knight Lab Student Fellow
     
• Political Framing + USA Today + APSA
  • ​http://politicalframing.com/blog/methodology
     
• MediaCloud & Framing - Berkman Center
   
• Software Development Engineer @ Amazon
   
• Database Journalist @ FiveThirtyEight
• Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy @ Harvard

Database Journalist, Politics

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/job-opening-database-journalist-politics/

Day One

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-republicans-and-democrats-have-an-age-problem/

Month One

Year One

More Writing / Reporting / Picking Up the Phone

Building Software

 

Polls Database

Lessons

Writing

Public Opinion

(and Pollapalooza)

 

 

Media Analysis

(data-driven)

Other stuff...

Visualization

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/guns-parkland-polling-quiz/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/all-the-cable-news-networks-are-covering-the-russia-story-just-not-the-same-one/

Scraping

Data Editing

Open Data

https://www.datajournalismawards.org/project-listing/?project_id=2082

Quantitative Editing

Words Editing

I edit POLL-BOT

... which is actually just 538's politics intern

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Fivey Fox as of 2020...RIP poll bot)

 

Bots

 

Bots let humans do what they're good at

2016

2018

Bot reports the facts, leaving time for humans to interpret them.

2018

But the bot also helps interpret facts!

2018

Lets readers see results that FiveThirtyEight deems unexpected

Expectations are calibrated before results ever start coming in.

2020

Same concept, new branding.

https://twitter.com/fiveyfox

2020

Bot evolves into a human...

...jk

http://journalism.stanford.edu/cj2016/files/Newsbots.pdf

Generalized Bot Architecture

C+J Conference @ Stanford (2016)

Part 2:

Types of Data Stories

Huge Data Dump

• Uber
• Election Results
• Census

Answer a question with data

Support/Oppose a hypothesis

Identify a Phenomenon

Identify a Phenomenon

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-really-has-neglected-puerto-rico/

Debunk or Justify Conventional Wisdom

Data-Driven Profile

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lionel-messi-is-impossible/

Lack of Data

Data driven investigative work

Dig for Data

Provide relevant context

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gun-deaths/

Build our own dataset

• With Code / Scrapers
• By Hand
• By Survey Tool

Explain Calculations

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/not-even-scientists-can-easily-explain-p-values/

Use Innovative Methodology

Use data to inform traditional reporting

The Rare Datapoint

Part 3:

A case study

Individual Poll

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_pa_110220.pdf/

Lots of Polls

Polling Average

Polling Average

• Weighting
  • Pollster Ratings
  • Recency
     
• Adjustments
  • Likely Voter 
  • House Effects
  • Timeline

Forecast (How to..)

Step 1: Collect, analyze and adjust polls

 

Step 2: Combine polls with “fundamentals,” such as demographic and economic data

 

Step 3: Account for uncertainty, and simulate the election thousands of times

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

• Polls
  • Horserace (national and state)
  • Approval
  • Generic Ballot
     
• Economic Indicators
    
• Incumbency
   
• Scandals
   
• Uncertainty Index
   
• ETC...LOTS OF THINGS

 

 

 

 

Polling Averages

 

 

"modeled estimate" (Historical Vote Patterns & Demographics)

Forecast

Popular Vote

Electoral College

Individual States

Tipping-point states

etc...etc...

Forecast

Past Forecasts

• 2014
• 2016
• 2018
• 2020