Bitcoin’s Fatal Flaw:

The Limited Adoption Problem

Discussion by Katya Malinova

Franz Hinzen, Kose John, Fahad Saleh

Brief Summary

  • Bitcoin (proof-of-work) blockchain is not scalable
    • Limited adoption: the fraction of users who use the blockchain for payments vanishes as the number of users increases
  • Permissioned blockchain is a viable alternative
    • But not for all consensus mechanisms, e.g.:
      • simple majority voting doesn't work
      • voting scaled by crypto-currency holdings does
  • Blockchain as payment infrastructure 

Model (PoW): Users

N users need to transact & choose:

Blockchain:

"Traditional" payment system

  • unmodelled
  • normalized as zero reward, zero cost?

Reward (from using blockchain?)

Fee to miners

Waiting cost:

"user impatience \(c_i\)" \(\times\) "time to confirm"

Model (PoW): Validators

  • Assumed to coordinate on the longest chain, no malicious behavior

Cost of validation technology

Number of validators

Sum of user fees

  • Free entry:

Model (PoW): Equilibrium

  • Low enough impatience \(c_i\le c^* \Rightarrow \) use blockchain
  • Marginal user \(c^*\) pays the highest fee and waits for:

block's arrival rate

fork/dispute resolution time

\(\infty\)

as \(N\to\infty\)

\(c^* \to 0\)  

"limited adoption"

Comments/Questions:

\(\infty\)

Key Result:

  • as \(N\to\infty\), the number of validators \(V\to \infty\)
  • Why do forks take \(\infty\)  to resolve?

Network delay/physical system limits 

  • \(\to \) with \(V=\infty\), time to agree/communicate explodes

Lemma B.1 in Appendix B ....

Comments/Questions:

Number of validators V determined by free entry:

Number of users \(N \to \infty \)

  • \(\Rightarrow\) expected fees \(\to \infty\)

Comment 1: need more intuition for this:

  • User i pays fee \(f_i \propto (N-1) c_i^2\)
  • With \(N\to\infty\), wait times explode & only super-patient users use blockchain ....
    • \(\to \)  \(c_i \approx 0 \) 
  • Fraction of blockchain users vanishes ...
  • What happens to fee per user?

Comments/Questions:

Number of validators V determined by free entry:

Number of users \(N \to \infty \)

  • \(\Rightarrow\) expected fees \(\to \infty\)

Comment 2: 

  • Confirmation times \(\to \infty\)
    \(\Rightarrow\) fees are received with infinite delay
  • Technology costs are incurred in real time!(?)
  • Are validators infinitely patient? No capital constraints?
    • Is there a transversality condition?

Model 2: (Permissioned Blockchain)

Validators:

  • Finite number 
  • Play a coordination game, choose:
    • be malicious
      • exogenous reward & cost 
    • be honest

Users:

  • same as before
  • Where does the reward come from? 
  • Seemingly should depend on the value of transactions and/or malicious users? 

Suggestion: One Paper, One Model

This paper: 2.5 models

  1. Proof-of-Work -- validators' incentives unmodelled
  2. Permissioned -- coordination game among validators 
    • with majority voting
    • with crypto-currency stake-weighted voting
      • \(\to\) must introduce and value cryptocurrency

No clear connection between #1 and #2

  • Why move from decentralized proof-of-work to permissioned?
  • Are there decentralized alternatives?
    • E.g., require minimum crypto-stake to become a validator?

Question: purpose of a blockchain in the model?

Users obtain a reward from transacting on the blockchain:

  • similar reward structure for permissionless PoW vs. permissioned

Where does the utility gain from blockchain use stem from?

  • E.g., with bitcoin: censorship-resistance, immutability ...
  • But this disappears if blockchain is permissioned

Key differences (from the user perspective) b/n the permissioned blockchain vs. traditional payment system in the model?

  • Central Bank Digital Currency? 

Suggestion: better connections to existing literature

Various "impossibility triangles" have been discussed:

  • The authors mention Buterin's: scalability, security, decentralization triangle
  • This is also discussed in the academic literature, e.g.:
    • comp sci: Gilbert and Lynch (2002) 
    • econ&finance: Abadi and Brunermeier (2018)
    • see Chen, Cong, Xiao (2019) for a survey
  • The paper:
    • co-existence of payment and currency systems
    • role for the value of cryptocurrency (for the voting weights)
    • users don't directly affect crypto-valuation
  • Is this approach consistent with the predictions from the user-driven cryptocurrency valuation models, where value is affected by e.g.:
    • possible speculation
    • coordination among users
    • see Malinova (2019) for a survey

Suggestion: better connections to existing literature

@katyamalinova

malinovk@mcmaster.ca

slides.com/kmalinova

https://sites.google.com/site/katyamalinova/

Discussion: Bitcoin's Fatal Flaw: Limited Adoption

By Katya Malinova

Discussion: Bitcoin's Fatal Flaw: Limited Adoption

This is a discussion that I gave at the Philadelphia Fed Conference in November 2019.

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