Why Nations Fail Illustrated

Lecture 9

Iron Law of Oligarchy

Persistence of extractive institutions

in Guatemala, US South, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia

December 3, 2018

Masayuki Kudamatsu

Chapter 12

Extractive Economic Institutions

Economic Stagnation

Extractive Political Institutions

Today's theme:

Feedback loop of extractive institutions

Either by the same set of the ruling class (Guatemala, US South)

or despite leadership changes (Sierra Leone, Ethiopia)

Today's Road Map

Guatemala before/after independence

US South before/after American Civil War

Sierra Leone before/after independence

Ethiopia before/after 1974 coup

Today's Road Map

Guatemala before/after independence

US South before/after American Civil War

Sierra Leone before/after independence

Ethiopia before/after 1974 coup

Image source: worldatlas.com

Spanish colonial rule

Encomienda / Repartimiento (cf. Lecture 6)

Land allocated to conquistadors

Consulado de Comercio

Merchant guild: monopolize trade

Forced labor

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

Rafael Carrera's dictatorship (1839-65)

Same set of extractive institutions: inherited

Consulado de Comercio

Encomienda / Repartimiento

Refuse to build ports & roads for Pacific coast

Guatemala became independent in 1821

Cadiz Constitution of post-Napoleon Spain:

unacceptable to colonial elite (cf. Lecture 6)

Consulado de Comercio

Now in charge of building infrastructure for development

Why Consulado resisted building infrastructure?

Which would undermine the monopoly of trade by Consuldado

Image source: worldatlas.com

Ports existed only on the Caribbean coast, controlled by Consulado de Comercio

New ports on the Pacific (& roads towards them) would allow Quetzaltenango to export cheaply

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

Impacts of the 1st globalization since 1870

cf. Lecture 6

Guatemala: suitable

for growing coffee

people's income

in Western Europe

& North America

Transportation cost

due to steamships

Exporting coffee:

hugely profitable

+

+

Source: Figure 1 of Fischer and Victor (2014)

"Liberals" since 1871

Repartimiento expanded by various laws since 1877

Employers could request up to 60 workers for 15 days of work

from government

Grab lands previously owned communally or by government 

1,000,000 acres of land taken by the elite during 1871-1883

These workers could be forcibly recruited

This system existed until 1945

"Liberals" since 1871 (cont.)

Industrialization: actively blocked by the rulers (cf. Lecture 4)

President Jorge Ubico (1931-44)

banned the use of words

like "workers", "labor unions", "strikes"

Guatemala's elite persist over centuries

1% of population (48 families) control economic/political power since 1531

Top 3 politicians in 1993:

e.g.

Bernal Diaz del Castillo

Juan De Leon Cardona

President Ramiro De Leon Carpio

Minister Ricardo Aitkenhead Castillo

Minister Ricardo Castillo Sinibaldi

Why extractive institutions survived?

all descendants of Spanish conquistadors

Consequences

Democratic rules, introduced in 1945, didn't last long

Civil wars broke out in 1954 & lasted until 1986

Vast majority of indigenous people

continued to work as low-wage workers

Today's Road Map

Guatemala before/after independence

US South before/after American Civil War

Sierra Leone before/after independence

Ethiopia before/after 1974 coup

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

U.S. South before American Civil War (1861-65)

Plantation owners: dominate politics

Slaves: have few rights of any kind

Only 9% of population live in urban areas (cf. 35% in Northeast)

Density of railroads / canals: 1/3 of the North

# of patents issued for cotton-making during 1837-1859: 1 per year

Political/economic institutions: extractive

Economic backwardness as a result

Total manufacturing output in 1860:

Lower than Pennsylvania, New York, or Massachusetts

% of slaves

in 1840

Source: Maps 18 & 19 of Why Nations Fail

% of manufacturing

workers in 1880 

Extractive Economic Institutions

Economic Stagnation

Extractive Political Institutions

That is...

Institutional reforms after Civil War

Slavery: abolished

Black men: given the right to vote

Freed slaves: promised to receive 40 acres of land & a mule

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

But extractive institutions persisted

Slavery: replaced with the Black Code

Black men: de facto disenfranchised by literacy test and poll tax

Land redistribution to black people: never implemented

Black Code

Passed by Alabama's state legislature in 1865

Restricts labor mobility

Forced labor continues despite the abolition of slavery

To reduce competition in labor market

so wages would be kept low

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

But extractive institutions persisted

Slavery: replaced with the Black Code

Black men: de facto disenfranchised by literacy test and poll tax

Land redistribution to black people: never implemented

Land redistribution revoked

During the war,

freed slaves were offered the promise of 40 acres and a mule

President Andrew Johnson revoked the promise in 1865

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

But extractive institutions persisted

Slavery: replaced with the Black Code

Black men: de facto disenfranchised by literacy test and poll tax

Land redistribution to black people: never implemented

Jim Crow laws

Poll taxes

Literacy test for voting

Black people

effectively disenfranchised

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Poll tax receipt in 1917

Image source: openculture.com

Jim Crow laws (cont.)

Separate schools for black people

Section 256 of Alabama state's constitution

e.g.

"Duty of legislature to establish and maintain public school system; apportionment of public school fund; separate schools for white and colored children."

Extractive Economic Institutions

Economic Stagnation

Extractive Political Institutions

That is...

Why extractive institutions survived?

A slaveholder:

exempted from military service for every 20 slaves held

236 owns $10,000+ real estate

110 of these 236 still owned $10,000+

In 5 counties of the Black Belt in Alabama

101 of the 236 still owned $10,000+

Because the planter elite survived the Civil War

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

1850

1860

1861-65

Civil War

1870

Why extractive institutions survived? (cont.)

The planter elite put pressure on the federal government

1877 presidential election

to obtain the support in southern states

Presidential candidate Rutherford Hayes:

Promised to withdraw Union Army from South

Congressmen from South:

Block any federal projects that would weaken the planter elite

He won and did withdraw the army

Consequences

Remained a rural society in 20th century

% of population lived in cities in 1900

13.5%

in South

Relied on hand labor and mule power, no mechanization

Low levels of education

60%

in Northeast

vs.

Today's Road Map

Guatemala before/after independence

US South before/after American Civil War

Sierra Leone before/after independence

Ethiopia before/after 1974 coup

Image source: diamonds.blogs.com

1

2

3

4

British colonial rule of Sierra Leone

Paramount chiefs

Diamond mine monopoly

Marketing board

Railways

Paramount chiefs

Title given by British in 1896

to important local kings

Roles:

Held for life once elected

Image source: Sierra Express Media

Collect taxes

Distribute justice

Keep order

Election of paramount chiefs

Eligibility for candidacy:

members of a ruling house (local king's family)

Voting right:

village chiefs / those appointed by paramount chiefs or British

Social stratification created (none existed before colonization)

Marketing Board

Set up by British in 1949

Cocoa/coffee farmers: heavily taxed

Force cocoa/coffee farmers to sell all their produce

At the price a lot less than the world price

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

Diamond mining monopoly

British set up a monopoly (Sierra Leone Selection Trust)

Diamonds discovered in 1930

granted it to De Beers

cf. Australia (Lecture 7)

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

Railways

Constructed by British in late 19c

For quick access to Mendeland, the heart of a rebellion in 1898

Image source: britishempire.co.uk

Sierra Leone after independence in 1961

1

2

3

4

Paramount chief: no change

Diamond mine monopoly: nationalized

Marketing board: got worse

Railways: suspended for political reasons

Paramount chiefs after independence

Have the last say on who farms where

Not abolished or reformed at all

They still collect taxes today

Land cannot be bought/sold  or used as a collateral for loans

Outsiders cannot plant perennial crops (coffee, cocoa, palm)

Adopted instead as a means to control rural areas

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

Marketing board after independence

Extraction of farmers got worse

Price (as % of world price) at which farmers were forced to sell

palm kernels

cocoa

coffee

mid-1960s

56%

48%

49%

mid-1980s

37%

19%

27%

economic institutions
Secure
for everyone
Property rights Insecure
for majority of people
Free Occupational
choice
Forced labor
Free Entry of new businesses Prevented by monopolies
Unbiased System of laws Biased for
the powerful/rich
Promoted Public service provision Discouraged

Economic Institutions

Inclusive

Extractive

Property rights

Secure for everyone

Insecure for majority of people

Occupational choice

Free

Forced labor

Entry of new businesses

Free

Prevented by monopolies

System of laws

Unbiased

Biased for the powerful / rich 

Public service provision

Provided

Limited

That is...

Diamond mining monopoly after independence

Nationalized in 1970

to create National Diamond Mining Company Ltd.

Railways after independence

1961-67

Used for exporting coffee/cocoa grown by Mende people

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Railway routes

Ethnic groups

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

1967 Election

Ruling party SLPP (supported by Mende people)

Narrowly lost to APC, led by Siaka Stevens

with support of Limba, Temne, Lukko

Ethnic groups

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Siaka Stevens

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Railways after independence (cont.)

Abandoned in 1974 to weaken the opposition (i.e. Mende)

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Railway routes

Ethnic groups

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Stevens preferred his political survival to Sierra Leone's economic growth (cf. Austrian/Russian Empires in Lecture 4)

Stevens's dictatorship since 1978

Central bank governor killed after criticizing Stevens in 1980

Opposition parties banned in 1978

Weaken the military and create a paramilitary unit loyal to himself

Inclusive

Extractive

Both

Plurality

and

Centralized

State

Either

Absolutist

or

Lack of

Centralization

Consequences

GDP per capita (in constant 2010 US$)

Today's Road Map

Guatemala before/after independence

US South before/after American Civil War

Sierra Leone before/after independence

Ethiopia before/after 1974 coup

The 1974 coup in Ethiopia

Derg (Marxist army officers)

ousted Emperor Haile Selassie (cf. Lecture 4)

Many politicians of the Empire were killed

Initial idea:

Create a socialist state by rejecting anything bourgeois

By 1978, materialism became accepted

Designer clothes for senior officials

Major Mengistu became the unchallenged leader

Chose Selassie's Grand Palace to live

Iron Law of Oligarchy

A similar phenomenon observed in other African countries

Democratic Republic of Congo

Dictator Mobutu was ousted by Laurent Kabila,

who then became the next dictator

e.g.

Extractive institutions persist despite leadership changes

When do inclusive institutions emerge?

Glorious Revolution of 1688

French Revolution of 1791

Independence of Africa

since the late 1950s

Rise of merchant class

No entrepreneurship

Broad coalition of opposition

to extractive institutions

A minority group

seeking power

History of

limited inclusive institutions

local inclusive institutions

killed by colonial rules

Week Ten

Chapter 13

Weeks 8-10: Persistence of Extractive Institutions

Week Eight

Chapter 9

Week Nine

Chapter 12

Colonization of

Southeast Asia by

Europeans in 17c

Slave trade in

sub-Saharan

Africa

British colonization

of South Africa

in 19c

Guatemala

Sierra Leone 

Ethiopia

before/after

the 1974 coup

US South

before/after

American Civil War

Zimbabwe

Argentina

Colombia

North Korea

Uzbekistan

Egypt

Next week

Your to-do list until next class

Read Chapter 13 along with

pp. 329-332 on Argentina & pp. 1-4, 61 on Egypt

and post questions on Prulu

1

2

3

Start collecting documents on political/economic events in your country

Assemble data for your country

Politics through the Lens of Economics (2018): Lecture 9

By Masayuki Kudamatsu

Politics through the Lens of Economics (2018): Lecture 9

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