Baseline Modeling
Sociological Reasoning
13 February 2014
Benjamin Lind, PhD
Faculty of Sociology and Centre for Advanced Studies
National Research University-Higher School of Economics
Source Material
Bruce H. Mayhew. 1984. "Baseline Models of Sociological Phenomena." Journal of Mathematical Sociology 9:259-81.
Basic Assumptions
-
Sociological phenomena are supra-individual
-
Concerned with populations and groups
-
Not concerned with individual properties
- Sociologists have two general interests
- Explanation for the existence of social phenomena
- Variation in social phenomena
(Mayhew 1984:259)
Baseline Model Requirements
1. Background conditions to bound the phenomena
2. A uniform probability density function that includes all possibilities pertaining to the background conditions
(Mayhew 1984:259-60)
Baseline Model Theory
- Clear
- Simple
- Occam's Razor
-
X creates opportunities for Y
- General
- Applies to many social phenomena
- Applies across time and space
- Testable
(Mayhew 1984:262)
Baseline Model Steps
- Identify necessary conditions
-
X is a structural condition
-
Y is a chance outcome
- Which X are required for Y?
- Identify background conditions
- Logical arguments
- Literature review
- Model selection
- Simple is better than complicated (terms)
- Powerful is better than weak (fit)
- General explanations are better than specific
Thinking Exercise
Which is higher in Russia?
- Suicide rate, 2006 WHO
-
Homicide rate, 2006 UNODC
Why?
What are the necessary conditions?
- For suicide?
- For homicide?
What are the other background conditions?
A Demonstration
"Lessons on Exponential Random Graph Modeling from Grey’s Anatomy Hook-ups"
- Let's pretend these are real people
- How would we predict hook-ups?
