First steps in flood risk assessment over Italy in a climate change scenario

Adriano Fantini

1st year PhD Course in Earth Science, Fluid Dynamics, and Mathematics

Supervisor: Erika Coppola

 

ADRIANO.FANTINI@phd.units.it

Aims

  • Flood risk mapping over Italy
  • scientific, reliable approach
  • future projections

Models

  • ICTP RegCM and other Regional Climate Models
  • CHyM hydrological model
  • LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model

Project overview

Participants

  • Erika Coppola
  • Rita Nogherotto
  • Filippo Giorgi
  • Adriano Fantini
  • Francesca Raffaele

Methodology

Precipitation:

  • Observations
  • RCM output

Gridded netCDF:

  • River network
  • Discharges

hydrological model

For each RP, cell:

  • Gumbel distr
  • Hydrographs

Statistical RP analysis

LISFLOOD-FP model

For each RP, cell:

  • Flood extent
  • Flood depth

(multiple simulations)

  • RCM output
  • Discharges
  • Past floods

Validation for

1.0 - Observations

We have access to several Italian observational datasets provided by the University of L'Aquila for:

  • temperature
  • precipitation
  • water level
  • discharge

1.1 - Observations

Step 2 - identify station problems:

  • short timescale
  • shifts
  • (out)liers
  • errors
  • breaks
  • fill values

Step 1 - transform the (binary) station datasets in more useful (netCDF) files

Step 3 - fix problems, homogenize datasets, create gridded databases

1.2 - Observations

Some examples...

Outliers

1.3 - Observations

Po discharge database

Fill constant

1.4 - Observations

Dewetra discharge database

Break

Shifts

Outlier

1.5 - Observations

Dewetra waterlevel database

Short time scales for most stations

1.6 - Observations

Acqwapo discharge database

Quantization

2.0 - Regional Climate Models

RCMs will be used later in the project to provide gridded input data to the CHyM hydrological model for future projections under climate change scenarios

I have obtained experience with:

  • Data analysis of 9 CORDEX RCMs against 9 high resolution European observational datasets (Fantini et al. 2016)
  • Model tuning of the RegCM4.6 model
  • RegCM4.6 performance assessment with different clusters (Argo, CINECA-Marconi A1/A2)

2.1 - Regional Climate Models

We have assessed the performance of 9 RCMs over 9 regions for precipitation:

  • High resolution observations
  • Several metrics, with focus on extreme precipitation
  • We found consistent added value in higher-resolution modelling (12km vs 50km) for most regions and most models

2.2 - Regional Climate Models

I performed more than 100 model simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain in both Argo and CINECA's Marconi A1/A2

  • Model tuning
  • Performance assessment
  • PRACE proposal 2016153590 approved

3.0 - Cetemps Hydrological Model

CHyM Is a distributed (gridded) hydrological model. Peculiarities:

  • Can build DEM from various sources, smoothing by cellula automata algorithms
  • Can use several kind of inputs, such as station observations, gridded model data, etc.
  • Designed to work on any domain
  • NetCDF output

3.1 - Cetemps Hydrological Model

Successes so far:

  • Model now working on all test domains
  • Model code and design has been streamlined (thanks to Fabio di Sante!)
  • We can reproduce past results (Coppola et al. 2013) on our test domain (western Po basin)
  • HR DEMs working (at low model res)

3.2 - Cetemps Hydrological Model

Failures so far:

  • River network reconstruction at high resolutions (<500m) fails due to singularities in the DEMs
  • Discharge at low resolutions must be rescaled

3.3 - Cetemps Hydrological Model

CHyM default Italian DEM is 300m in resolution, we wanted to try higher resolution DEMs:

  • ASTER 30m
  • HydroSHEDS 90m
  • SRTM 90m
  • JAXA 30m (wip)

New HR DEM is able to reconstruct the river network at low model resolutions (900m)

3.4 - Cetemps Hydrological Model

CHyM-OP reproduced domains:

3.5 - Cetemps Hydrological Model

CHyM-OP reproduced domains:

4 - Statistics

How to estimate hundred-years floods with only a few (~20) years worth of data?

The methodology is taken from Maione et al., 2003

Annual maxima

Gumbel extreme value distribution

Fit parameters

SDH: "Typical" flood timing curve for each river cell

LISFLOOD-FP input data

5.0 - LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model

Widely-used flood inundation model from the University of Bristol (Bates et al., 2010)

  • DEM
  • D4 River network
  • SDH

5.1 - LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model

Problems!

  • Excessive flooding in low RPs
  • Not enough difference between RPs

Solutions?

  • Higher resolution (~50m)
  • Better DEMs (HydroSHEDS)
  • ?

6.0 - Visualization

An R/Leaflet tool for flood, river, DEM, basin and station visualization

6.1 - Visualization

Click_edit: an R/Shiny tool for WYSISYG editing of NetCDF files

7 - Validation

Conferences and papers for 2015-2016

  • EGU General Assembly, Vienna 2016, oral presentation
  • ICRC CORDEX, Stockholm 2016
  • ICTP RegCM Workshop, Trieste 2016, oral presentation
  • EMS Annual Meeting, Trieste 2016, oral presentation
  • Assessment of multiple daily precipitation statistics in ERA-Interim driven Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX experiments against high resolution observations; A. Fantini, F. Raffaele, C. Torma, S. Bacer, E. Coppola, F. Giorgi, B. Ahrens, C. Dubois,  E. Sanchez, M. Verdecchia; Climate Dynamics, published
  • The European mountain cryosphere: A review of past, current and future issues; M. Beninston et al.; The cryosphere; in review

Thanks for your attention!

Precipitation:

  • Observations
  • RCM output

Gridded netCDF:

  • River network
  • Discharges

hydrological model

For each RP, cell:

  • Gumbel distr
  • Hydrographs

Statistical RP analysis

LISFLOOD-FP model

For each RP, cell:

  • Flood extent
  • Flood depth

(multiple simulations)

  • RCM output
  • Discharges
  • Past floods

Validation for

ESFM 2015-2016 report (I year)

By odineidolon

ESFM 2015-2016 report (I year)

Presentation for I year of PhD, 15 min

  • 428