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Digital Commerce
The history of making money online
Table of Contents
Internet as a Toy
Kids, Trends and fads
Dot-com Bubble
This time it's different™
Lean Product Design
The death of "get big fast"
🧸
📈🚲
🧸 Internet as a Toy
Kids, trends and fads
Virtual Economies
"By 2005 or so,
it will become clear that the Internet's impact
on the economy has
been no greater
than the fax machine"
Paul Krugman
Virtual Economies
"By 2005 or so,
it will become clear that the Internet's impact
on the economy has
been no greater
than the fax machine"
Paul Krugman
Virtual Economies
"By 2005 or so,
it will become clear that the Internet's impact
on the economy has
been no greater
than the fax machine"
Paul Krugman
Virtual Economies
"By 2005 or so,
it will become clear that the Internet's impact
on the economy has
been no greater
than the fax machine"
Paul Krugman
Virtual Economies
"By 2005 or so,
it will become clear that the Internet's impact
on the economy has
been no greater
than the fax machine"
Paul Krugman
Virtual Economies
"By 2005 or so,
it will become clear that the Internet's impact
on the economy has
been no greater
than the fax machine"
Paul Krugman
Virtual Economies
Paul Krugman
"By 2005 or so,
it will become clear that the Internet's impact
on the economy has
been no greater
than the fax machine"
"By 2005 or so,
it will become clear that the Internet's impact
on the economy has
been no greater
than the fax machine"
Paul Krugman
Virtual Economies
1996
A Toy for Kids
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"... touting it as a revolutionary medium that would completely change our lives. [...] others who looked at the net and saw, yes, a toy. And we have to admit that these skeptics had a valid point of view, even with the benefit of hindsight. Because so much of the early web was decidedly amateur."
A Toy for Kids
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"... touting it as a revolutionary medium that would completely change our lives. [...] others who looked at the net and saw, yes, a toy. And we have to admit that these skeptics had a valid point of view, even with the benefit of hindsight. Because so much of the early web was decidedly amateur."
A Toy for Kids
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"... touting it as a revolutionary medium that would completely change our lives. [...] others who looked at the net and saw, yes, a toy. And we have to admit that these skeptics had a valid point of view, even with the benefit of hindsight. Because so much of the early web was decidedly amateur."
A Toy for Kids
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"... touting it as a revolutionary medium that would completely change our lives. [...] others who looked at the net and saw, yes, a toy. And we have to admit that these skeptics had a valid point of view, even with the benefit of hindsight. Because so much of the early web was decidedly amateur."
A Toy for Kids
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"... touting it as a revolutionary medium that would completely change our lives. [...] others who looked at the net and saw, yes, a toy. And we have to admit that these skeptics had a valid point of view, even with the benefit of hindsight. Because so much of the early web was decidedly amateur."
A Toy for Kids
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"... touting it as a revolutionary medium that would completely change our lives. [...] others who looked at the net and saw, yes, a toy. And we have to admit that these skeptics had a valid point of view, even with the benefit of hindsight. Because so much of the early web was decidedly amateur."
A Toy for Kids
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"... touting it as a revolutionary medium that would completely change our lives. [...] others who looked at the net and saw, yes, a toy. And we have to admit that these skeptics had a valid point of view, even with the benefit of hindsight. Because so much of the early web was decidedly amateur."
Zuck as a Teenager
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
“Hi, my name is . . . Slim Shady. No, really, my name is Slim Shady. Just kidding, my name is Mark Zuckerberg (for those of you that don’t know me) and I live in a small town near the massive city of New York. I am currently 15 years old and I just finished freshman year in high school."
First Online Transaction
John Markoff
What The Dormouse Said (2005)
"...Stanford students, using ARPAnet accounts at SAIL, engaged in a commercial transaction with their counterparts at MIT. Before Amazon, before eBay, the seminal act of e-commerce was a drug deal. The students used the network to quietly arrange the sale of an undetermined amount of marijuana"
First Online Transaction
John Markoff
What The Dormouse Said (2005)
"...Stanford students, using ARPAnet accounts at SAIL, engaged in a commercial transaction with their counterparts at MIT. Before Amazon, before eBay, the seminal act of e-commerce was a drug deal. The students used the network to quietly arrange the sale of an undetermined amount of marijuana"
First Online Transaction
John Markoff
What The Dormouse Said (2005)
"...Stanford students, using ARPAnet accounts at SAIL, engaged in a commercial transaction with their counterparts at MIT. Before Amazon, before eBay, the seminal act of e-commerce was a drug deal. The students used the network to quietly arrange the sale of an undetermined amount of marijuana"
First Online Transaction
John Markoff
What The Dormouse Said (2005)
"...Stanford students, using ARPAnet accounts at SAIL, engaged in a commercial transaction with their counterparts at MIT. Before Amazon, before eBay, the seminal act of e-commerce was a drug deal. The students used the network to quietly arrange the sale of an undetermined amount of marijuana"
First Online Transaction
John Markoff
What The Dormouse Said (2005)
"...Stanford students, using ARPAnet accounts at SAIL, engaged in a commercial transaction with their counterparts at MIT. Before Amazon, before eBay, the seminal act of e-commerce was a drug deal. The students used the network to quietly arrange the sale of an undetermined amount of marijuana"
First Online Transaction
John Markoff
What The Dormouse Said (2005)
"...Stanford students, using ARPAnet accounts at SAIL, engaged in a commercial transaction with their counterparts at MIT. Before Amazon, before eBay, the seminal act of e-commerce was a drug deal. The students used the network to quietly arrange the sale of an undetermined amount of marijuana"
First Online Transaction
John Markoff
What The Dormouse Said (2005)
"...Stanford students, using ARPAnet accounts at SAIL, engaged in a commercial transaction with their counterparts at MIT. Before Amazon, before eBay, the seminal act of e-commerce was a drug deal. The students used the network to quietly arrange the sale of an undetermined amount of marijuana"
First Online Transaction
John Markoff
What The Dormouse Said (2005)
"...Stanford students, using ARPAnet accounts at SAIL, engaged in a commercial transaction with their counterparts at MIT. Before Amazon, before eBay, the seminal act of e-commerce was a drug deal. The students used the network to quietly arrange the sale of an undetermined amount of marijuana"
Commerce
"The history of commerce is, in many ways, a history of the world. Commerce and international trade shaped — and were shaped by — geography, climate, politics, peace, war, fashions, gastronomic taste, language, and so much more. From the Silk Road, which connected China and the Far East with the Middle East and Europe, to the advent of ecommerce, the act of exchanging one thing of value for another has had an incredible impact on the world — and vice versa."
Big Commerce:
The History of Commerce
The Modern Era
"Feudalism had been designed for a society in which only local markets existed and in which money transactions were relatively rare. The rise of commerce deepened the markets and made money trades increasingly common, but feudalism was slow to respond to these changes. [...] The most significant change was the substitution of a fixed money payment for the serf’s labour obligation, leaving him free to work full-time on his own strips."
Merchants and Mechanics:
The History of Economic Growth (2018)
📈 Dot-com Bubble
This time it is different™
Most Dangerous Flower
Most Dangerous Flower
Most Dangerous Flower
First Recorded Bubble
Wikipedia
Tulip Mania
"...generally considered to have been the first recorded speculative bubble or asset bubble in history. [...] At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled artisan. [...] at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb."
First Recorded Bubble
Wikipedia
Tulip Mania
"...generally considered to have been the first recorded speculative bubble or asset bubble in history. [...] At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled artisan. [...] at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb."
First Recorded Bubble
Wikipedia
Tulip Mania
"...generally considered to have been the first recorded speculative bubble or asset bubble in history. [...] At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled artisan. [...] at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb."
First Recorded Bubble
Wikipedia
Tulip Mania
"...generally considered to have been the first recorded speculative bubble or asset bubble in history. [...] At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled artisan. [...] at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb."
First Recorded Bubble
Wikipedia
Tulip Mania
"...generally considered to have been the first recorded speculative bubble or asset bubble in history. [...] At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled artisan. [...] at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb."
The Bubble
The Pop
Once in a Lifetime
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"people inside and outside of tech fall all over themselves to declare that a new bubble is here, and everyone should head for the hills. But the fact is, the dot-com bubble was a truly singular event, brought on by a unique mixture of causes, and we are unlikely to see its kind again in our lifetimes."
Once in a Lifetime
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"people inside and outside of tech fall all over themselves to declare that a new bubble is here, and everyone should head for the hills. But the fact is, the dot-com bubble was a truly singular event, brought on by a unique mixture of causes, and we are unlikely to see its kind again in our lifetimes."
Once in a Lifetime
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"people inside and outside of tech fall all over themselves to declare that a new bubble is here, and everyone should head for the hills. But the fact is, the dot-com bubble was a truly singular event, brought on by a unique mixture of causes, and we are unlikely to see its kind again in our lifetimes."
Once in a Lifetime
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"people inside and outside of tech fall all over themselves to declare that a new bubble is here, and everyone should head for the hills. But the fact is, the dot-com bubble was a truly singular event, brought on by a unique mixture of causes, and we are unlikely to see its kind again in our lifetimes."
Once in a Lifetime
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"people inside and outside of tech fall all over themselves to declare that a new bubble is here, and everyone should head for the hills. But the fact is, the dot-com bubble was a truly singular event, brought on by a unique mixture of causes, and we are unlikely to see its kind again in our lifetimes."
Dot-com Bubble
Over Optimism
"The dot-com bubble (also known as the dot-com boom,the tech bubble, and the Internet bubble) was a stock market bubble caused by excessive speculation in Internet-related companies in the late 1990s, a period of massive growth in the use and adoption of the Internet. Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%"
Priceline
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"Priceline racked up losses of $142.5 million. [...] losing, on average, $30 on every ticket it sold. Or that Priceline customers often ended up paying more at auction than they could have paid through a traditional travel agent. Investors were more interested in grabbing a piece of a company that was going to change the future of business."
Priceline
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"Priceline racked up losses of $142.5 million. [...] losing, on average, $30 on every ticket it sold. Or that Priceline customers often ended up paying more at auction than they could have paid through a traditional travel agent. Investors were more interested in grabbing a piece of a company that was going to change the future of business."
Priceline
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"Priceline racked up losses of $142.5 million. [...] losing, on average, $30 on every ticket it sold. Or that Priceline customers often ended up paying more at auction than they could have paid through a traditional travel agent. Investors were more interested in grabbing a piece of a company that was going to change the future of business."
Priceline
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"Priceline racked up losses of $142.5 million. [...] losing, on average, $30 on every ticket it sold. Or that Priceline customers often ended up paying more at auction than they could have paid through a traditional travel agent. Investors were more interested in grabbing a piece of a company that was going to change the future of business."
Priceline
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"Priceline racked up losses of $142.5 million. [...] losing, on average, $30 on every ticket it sold. Or that Priceline customers often ended up paying more at auction than they could have paid through a traditional travel agent. Investors were more interested in grabbing a piece of a company that was going to change the future of business."
Priceline
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"Priceline racked up losses of $142.5 million. [...] losing, on average, $30 on every ticket it sold. Or that Priceline customers often ended up paying more at auction than they could have paid through a traditional travel agent. Investors were more interested in grabbing a piece of a company that was going to change the future of business."
Get Big Fast
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"a business plan that promised to “change the world”; a Get Big Fast strategy to reach ubiquity and corner a particular market; [...] a willingness to spend lavishly on branding and advertising to raise awareness; and, above all, a sky-high stock market valuation that was divorced from any sort of profitability or rationality."
Get Big Fast
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"a business plan that promised to “change the world”; a Get Big Fast strategy to reach ubiquity and corner a particular market; [...] a willingness to spend lavishly on branding and advertising to raise awareness; and, above all, a sky-high stock market valuation that was divorced from any sort of profitability or rationality."
Get Big Fast
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"a business plan that promised to “change the world”; a Get Big Fast strategy to reach ubiquity and corner a particular market; [...] a willingness to spend lavishly on branding and advertising to raise awareness; and, above all, a sky-high stock market valuation that was divorced from any sort of profitability or rationality."
Get Big Fast
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"a business plan that promised to “change the world”; a Get Big Fast strategy to reach ubiquity and corner a particular market; [...] a willingness to spend lavishly on branding and advertising to raise awareness; and, above all, a sky-high stock market valuation that was divorced from any sort of profitability or rationality."
Get Big Fast
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"a business plan that promised to “change the world”; a Get Big Fast strategy to reach ubiquity and corner a particular market; [...] a willingness to spend lavishly on branding and advertising to raise awareness; and, above all, a sky-high stock market valuation that was divorced from any sort of profitability or rationality."
Get Big Fast
Brian McCullough
How the Internet Happened (2018)
"a business plan that promised to “change the world”; a Get Big Fast strategy to reach ubiquity and corner a particular market; [...] a willingness to spend lavishly on branding and advertising to raise awareness; and, above all, a sky-high stock market valuation that was divorced from any sort of profitability or rationality."
🚲Lean Product Design
The death of "get big fast"
Somewhere In-between
"E-commerce markets are growing at noticeable rates. The online market is expected to grow by 56% in 2015–2020. In 2017, retail e-commerce sales worldwide amounted to 2.3 trillion US dollars and e-retail revenues are projected to grow to 4.88 trillion US dollars in 2021. Traditional markets are only expected 2% growth during the same time."
E-commerce in RSA
"E-commerce accounted for only 1.6%, or $1.2 billion, of South African retail sales in 2019, according to London-based market research firm Euromonitor International. [...] However, Euromonitor expects sales to double this year while Nielsen South Africa’s retail lead analyst Gareth Paterson predicts up to 200% growth in online food purchases."
Eye Witness News:
SA E-commerce is a COVID-fired Market
Post COVID
"A survey conducted by Visa found that 64% of consumers in South Africa bought groceries online for the first time because of the coronavirus outbreak and that 53% made their first online purchase from a pharmacy. [...] “This was the quantum shift,” said Anthony Thunstrom, chief executive of clothing and homeware retailer TFG. “We probably advanced two to three years in terms of online demand because of COVID-19.”
Eye Witness News:
SA E-commerce is a COVID-fired Market
Beyond the Pop
"After venture capital was no longer available, the operational mentality of executives and investors completely changed. A dot-com company's lifespan was measured by its burn rate, the rate at which it spent its existing capital. Many dot-com companies ran out of capital and went through liquidation. Supporting industries, such as advertising and shipping, scaled back their operations as demand for services fell. [...] Templeton believed most insiders knew their company stock was highly overvalued and wanted to cash out while prices were high, while mass sales of stock would drive prices lower."
Wikipedia: Dot-com bubble
Vanity Metrics
"As we’ll see in a moment, this is a common danger. Companies of any size that have a working engine of growth can come to rely on the wrong kind of metrics to guide their actions. This is what tempts managers to resort to the usual bag of success theater tricks: last-minute ad buys, channel stuffing, and whiz-bang demos, in a desperate attempt to make the gross numbers look better. Energy invested in success theater is energy that could have been used to help build a sustainable business [...] This goes against the standard intuition in that if a company lacks growth, it should invest more in sales and marketing."
Eric Ries
The Lean Startup (2011)
Post Dot-com Bubble
"Online conversion rate optimization (or website optimization) was born out of the need of e-commerce marketers to improve their website's performance in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble, when technology companies started to be more aware about their spending, investing more in website analytics. After the burst, with website creation being more accessible, tons of pages with bad user experience were created. As competition grew on the web during the early 2000s, website analysis tools became available, and awareness of website usability grew, internet marketers were prompted to produce measurables for their tactics and improve their website's user experience."
Wikipedia: Conversion Rate Optimization
Digital Commerce
By Schalk Venter
Digital Commerce
...
