Are Programmers Heading Toward Another Bursting Bubble?

And other scary questions people ask in news articles

Tyler Elliot Bettilyon

Teb for short.

 

I used to work at some startups that don't matter.

 

I teach programming and computer science.

 

I write about technology and its impact on the world.

 

Tyler Elliot Bettilyon

Website:   www.tebslab.com

Medium:  @tebbaVonMathenstien

Twitter:    @TebbaVonMaths

What's This Talk About?

Historic changes in employment landscape. Especially when these changes are related to technological innovation.

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What's This Talk About?

Historic innovations that changed the software landscape.

What's This Talk About?

Current trends that could impact the future of the software and programming labor markets.

What's This Talk About?

My advice for staying relevant in the competitive software market

Never Stop Learning

and

Learn The Right Stuff

Automation is Inevitable

Technological innovations eliminate and augment human labor capabilities.

Automation is Inevitable

Every industry that employs humans might be augmented by technology

Automation is Inevitable

We haven't run out of work, despite increased automation and increased population.

Population, it has grown.

Source: https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore

Automation is Inevitable

We haven't run out of work, despite increased automation and increased population.

Employment in Agriculture has declined.

Source: https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore

Automation is Inevitable

We haven't run out of work, despite increased automation and increased population.

Employment in industry has been mostly flat.

Source: https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore

Automation is Inevitable

We haven't run out of work, despite increased automation and increased population.

Employment in services has increased.

Source: https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore

Automation is Inevitable

Top 1% are capturing more of the profits.

Source: https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality

Automation is Inevitable

But overall poverty has fallen.

Source: https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality

Software Automates Itself

Software Automates Itself

  • Punched Cards
  • Digital Machine Code
  • Assemblers
  • Compilers
  • Interpreters
  • Virtual Machines
  • Just in Time Compilers
  • ...

We consistently invent programs that interpret other programs to save programmers time and effort

Software Automates Itself

We consistently invent programs that interpret other programs to save programmers time and effort

Software Automates Itself

This process isn't limited to languages and compilers either.

Software Automates Itself

It isn't limited to engineers replacing other engineers...

Induced Demand For Software

Software's proliferation creates demand for programming skills.

  • Basic HTML/CSS helps a SquareSpace user.

     
  • Basic SQL helps a SalesForce or Tableau user.

Induced Demand For Software

Software's proliferation means more people are using it, the human touch matters more than ever.

  • Growing need for good design.
     
  • Not just for web and phone apps, but interfaces for all kinds of new devices.
     
  • Tools like SquareSpace are replacing engineers but making designers more valuable.

Induced Demand For Software

Innovation drives further innovation

  • Massive data sets created the need for big data software specialists.


     
  • Advancements in big data software created demand for specialized hardware.

Induced Demand For Software

More software means more demand for software security

  • "Internet of Things" creates of attack vectors
     
  • Same for cryptocurrency, cloud computing, proliferation of phones.
     
  • Don't discount the Military Industrial Complex as a "Job Creator" — cyberwarefare is growing too.

Induced Demand For Software

AI and security are like arms races

  • Better fraud detection creates better fraudsters...
     
  • Twitter led to Twitter Bots, which led to Twitter bot detection, which is leading to detection avoidance...
     
  • The emergence of Deep Fakes will create a market for fake detection which will lead to better fakes...

Induced Demand For Software

Technology is creating tech adjacent jobs too.

  • Tech savvy politicians.
     
  • Tech savvy lawyers.
     
  • Tech savvy writers.
     
  • etc.

Education is Changing

Volume of CS Degrees has surpassed the dotcom peak

Source: https://cra.org/data/generation-cs/phenomenal-growth-cs-majors-since-2006/

Education is Changing

Volume of CS Degrees has surpassed the dotcom peak.

Source: https://cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/CSCapacity.pdf

Education is Changing

Trade schools, bootcamps, and other alternatives to traditional degree programs are on the rise.

Source: https://www.coursereport.com/reports/2018-coding-bootcamp-market-size-research

Education is Changing

Bootcamps are both for reskilling and first timers.

Source: https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2018/#developer-profile

There Will Always Be a Frontier

There will be things that are just out of reach.

  • There will be high paying jobs for people who are redefining what is possible.

     
  • Biotech, space travel, robotics, networking, security, distributed computing.

Tech Hubs & Remote Work

  • Tech hubs are emerging around the world


     
  • Bengaluru, New York City, Berlin, London, Shenzhen ...

Tech Hubs & Remote Work

  • Remote work opportunities could flatten wages as offshoring and nearshoring becomes easier.

     
  • But, it opens a larger job market for individual developers.

     
  • Might make competition for the very best jobs even tighter.

Staying Relevant

  • Technology will change.
     
  • Demand for specific skills will change.
     
  • Update your education and try to get your employer to pay for it.
     

Don't get complacent, always keep learning.

Staying Relevant

  • Learn to be an excellent communicator.
     
  • Learn to be empathetic.
     
  • Appreciate teammates who do the things that you don't do.

No matter how "automated" things get you will still be working for and with people.

Staying Relevant

Knowledge of the fundamentals helps you to learn other things quickly.

  • Seek connections between new information and what you already know.

     
  • Learn the foundational theory in your relevant fields.

Staying Relevant

  • You may have to switch IDE's.
     
  • You may have to switch languages.
     
  • You may change industries.
     
  • Cest la vie.
     

Some of the things you learn will eventually become irrelevant, accept that.

Staying Relevant

  • Learning every new framework is a waste of time.
     
  • Same for languages.
     
  • Same for tools.
     
  • Learn one or two things in a relevant category then trust your ability to learn something new when a job opportunity or other external factor requires you to.

But don't just learn every new thing.

Thanks For Coming.

Website:   www.tebslab.com

Medium:  @tebbaVonMathenstien

Twitter:    @TebbaVonMaths

My name is still Tyler Elliot Bettilyon.

Find me online:

Are Programmers Headed for a Bursting Bubble?

By tebba-von-mathenstein

Are Programmers Headed for a Bursting Bubble?

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