Blu-ray
DVD
Total
sold
units
(10 million)
Opening week gross (100 million $)
Popularity Holding Index (PHI) =
4th week gross per theater / average of first 2-week gross per theater
Weekly Gross ($)
Week
1.5
4
# of theaters
20%
100%
PHI
4week total gross (100 million $)
BD/DVD
(10million
units)
Total Blu-ray/DVD sales =
- 254700 + 0.348 x (4wk gross) + 530500 x (PHI) + (genre)
genre example: Animation = 1420000
model = smf.ols('bddvdsale ~ total_4w_gross + w4_2w_phi + genres', df).fit() "Bluray_DVD = beta0 + beta1*total_4w_gross + beta2*w4_2w_phi + beta3*genres"
PHI and 4week_gross are independent
Music and History genre does not have enough sample cases
The final model predicted value vs true value
in 400 movie title from separate test data set
6108065
6008853
5937283
3706274
* Furious 7 and Home are not included as they have not pass week 4
2015 Box Office
DVD Prediction
root mean squared error(training_data) = 1669312 root mean squared error(testing_data) = 1779348
By tohei
How can we predict Blu-ray/DVD sales?
