Ministering without Work

David Morgen

April 7, 2022

The Work of the Minister

Image: Roberto Prado for Mother Jones

Artificial intelligence is coming whether you like it or not.

We think we're used to the idea of rapid improvements in information technology, but we're actually standing on the precipice of changes that are much larger in scale than what we've seen so far.

1

1950 Trillionth

Just a pile of vaccum tubes.

2

1970 Billionth

Still a joke compared to human brain.

3

1990 Millionth

Still no comparison.

5

2024 Tenth

It's interesting, but still only the processing power of a housecat.

4

2010 Thousandth

Still looks like an insurmountable comparison.

6

2030 One

Computer can emulate the processing power of the human brain.

Suppose that in 1950, the fastest computer has one trillionth the computing capacity of a human brain & suppose that computing capacity increases 1000x every 20 years ...

It's already here

Self-driving trucks

In Oct 2016, the first robot beer run

Already replacing retail workers

Self Checkout

High-level image processing work of radiologists

Radiology

Larger than all of human tech revolutions added together, including electricity, the Industrial Revolution, the internet, mobile internet.

Replace 50% of human jobs ... create a huge amount of wealth for mankind ... wipe out poverty

Because AI is pervasive. It is a decision engine that will replace people.

LET THE ROBOTS HAVE THE DAMN JOBS! RIGHT?

As Kai-Fu Lee says, AI can wipe out poverty and free us all from the drudgery of labor so we can all be free to read or write poetry or play video games or whatever we want to do

But ...

Until we figure out how to fairly distribute the fruits of robot labor, it will be an era of mass joblessness and mass poverty.

AND ...

Even if we quickly and fairly figure out how to distribute the benefits of AI to everyone, the cultural change necessary to adjust to mass joblessness is huge!

In other words

Even if we're headed for utopia in the long-run, there will be a lot of suffering and disruption on the way between here and there.

Hard to define Collaborative
People not experts Transformative learning
Long-term outcomes Shifts in perspective
Changes in attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors Deal with more resistance

Adaptive challenges

The Work of the minister

?

What are some of the implications, some of the biggest adaptive challenges you see?

Ministering Without Work

By edmorge

Ministering Without Work

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