• Introduction: what will LSST measure?
• Variable vs. non-variable stars
• What can you do with non-variable stars?
• LSST vs. Gaia
• What can you do with variable stars?

At this level of precision,everything is variable, everything is blended, everything is moving.

 https://ls.st/srd

the Rubin LSST

Science Collaborations

The Rubin Organization is almost as complex as the Universe it will explore!

Rubin LSST Science Collaborations

Rubin LSST Science Collaborations

8 SCs - 6 continents - 2000 people - 25 countries

LSST in the time-domain

Rubin LSST Science Collaborations

Marshall et al 2017

Rubin LSST survey design

Wide Fast Deep

 8oo img over 18,000 sq deg

 pairs of observations in <1hour to track asteroid (and get transient colors)

80% of the sky time

Many surveys in one

Minisurveys

Minisurveys

Deep Drilling Fields

Targets of Opportunity

}

20%

Rubin LSST survey design

Bianco, Jones, Ivezič et al, 2021

https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.01683

distributions of time gaps in 76 OpSims

Bianco, Jones, Ivezič et al. 2021 https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.01683

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin LSST survey design

Bianco et al. 2021 https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.01683

Rubin Focus Issue of ApJS on Rubin Survey Strategy Optimization

Rubin data and time domain data products

Time-domain data products

world public

data right holders

public after 2 years

Time-domain data products

world public

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dmmKG0ANk8

Time-domain data products

world public

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dmmKG0ANk8

Time-domain data products

world public

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dmmKG0ANk8

Time-domain data products

E. Bellm https://project.lsst.org/meetings/rubin2021/content/timeseries-variability-features

E. Bellm https://project.lsst.org/meetings/rubin2021/content/timeseries-variability-features

E. Bellm https://project.lsst.org/meetings/rubin2021/content/timeseries-variability-features

E. Bellm https://project.lsst.org/meetings/rubin2021/content/timeseries-variability-features

E. Bellm https://project.lsst.org/meetings/rubin2021/content/timeseries-variability-features

world public

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dmmKG0ANk8

Time-domain data products

A change of perspective

from rare to statistical samples

Stephen T. Ridgway+ 2014

THE VARIABLE SKY OF DEEP SYNOPTIC SURVEYS

arXiv:1409.3265

Li et al. almost submitted

AILE: the first AI-based platform for the detection and study of Light Echoes

NSF Award #2108841

Detecting and studying light echoes in the era of Rubin and Artificial Intelligence

P.I. Bianco

Pessimal AI problem:

• small training data
• inaccurate labels
• imbalance classes
• diverse morphology
• low SNR

from rare to statistical samples

from dense time-limited or color-limited to sparse multiband

Magnitude -> Flare energy

Star displacement -> color -> flare temperature

Gizis, Paduel, et al. 2017

What can we learn from 1 data point?

Because LSST will have exquisite image quality we may be able to measure color from atmospheric diffraction

from dense time-limited or color-limited to sparse multiband

Magnitude -> Flare energy

Star displacement -> color -> flare temperature

Gizis, Paduel, et al. 2017

What can we learn from 1 data point?

Because LSST will have exquisite image quality we may be able to measure color from atmospheric diffraction

from dense time-limited or color-limited to sparse multiband high accuracy

Riley Clarke, Davenport, Gizis, Bianco, in prep

What can we learn from 1 data point?

Because LSST will have exquisite image quality we may be able to measure color from atmospheric diffraction

5,000K flare on dM

30,000K flare on dM

Magnitude -> Flare energy

Star displacement -> color -> flare temperature

from dense time-limited or color-limited to sparse multiband high accuracy

Riley Clarke, Davenport, Gizis, Bianco, in prep

What can we learn from 1 data point?

Because LSST will have exquisite image quality we may be able to measure color from atmospheric diffraction

5,000K flare on dM

30,000K flare on dM

Magnitude -> Flare energy

Star displacement -> color -> flare temperature

Rubin Observatory LSST 

Stars and Pies in the sky:

what is possible with Rubin LSST?

The unprecedented sensitivity, spatial coverage and observing cadence of LSST will allow for the first time a statistical approach for the discovery and monitoring of "rare" phenomena

Detailed studies of variable star populations; 2% or better accurate multicolor light curves will be available for a sample of at least 50 million variable stars, enabling studies of cataclysmic variables, eclipsing binary systems, and rare types of variables.

Ivezič + 2019

some examples

Rubin Observatory LSST 

Dark Energy Science Collaboration

(DESC) 

+ 

Transients and Variable

Science Collaboration

(TVS SC)

DDF

Kaggle PLAsTiCC challenge

AVOCADO classifier

https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.04690

WFD

Stellar Accretion Processes: Uniquely, LSSTwill provide both the long-baseline timeseries data necessary to quantify outburst cycles and object occurrence rates but also the rapid alerts necessary to enable outburst phases to be identified while inprogress, triggering more detailed follow-up studies (relies on alerts)

Sara Bonito chair of the Non-Degenerate Eruptive Variables TVS subgroup

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

Studies enabled by statistical samples:

• Observe changes of state of any MSP, LMXBs and tMSP, known and/or newly discovered: the multi-color photometry of the LSST main survey will enable an alert in real time aboutany change of state of known systems (whether MSP, LMXB or tMSP)
• only∼250 Galactic and∼70 extragalactic SySt are known - increasing the sample helps SN Ia progenitor studies  
• the accretion process and its intrinsic variability
• the spatial distribution of stellar rotation in young clusters,
• stellar magnetic activity, and
• accretion and inner disk geometries.

Stellar Eruptions: The Giant Eruption of Eta Carinae reached m=1.4, while in an obscured Little Eruption the system reached magnitude 6.2.

• With the single-band limit of LSST at magnitude 24-25  a Giant or a Little Eruption would be visible in the LMC (distance modulus = 18.5), and
• a Giant Eruptionin can be detected in the Local Group (distance modulus 24.4).

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

Historical lightcurve ot Eta Carinae (1800s) and  "supernova impostors" Smith & Frew 2011

from rare to statistical samples

Stellar Eruptions:

• 1000 observations over a decade would support the study of long term variation in Eruptions and constraind eruption mechanisms (binarity, winds, magnetism, etc)
• For stellar eruptions in our Galaxy the depth and image quality of Rubin LSST will enable the search of progenitors and progenitor variations on a statistical scale

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

Historical lightcurve ot Eta Carinae (1800s) and  "supernova impostors" Smith & Frew 2011

from rare to statistical samples

YOLO + attention mechanism

precision 80% at 70% recall with a training set of 19 light echo examples! 

NSF Award #2108841

Detecting and studying light echoes in the era of Rubin and Artificial Intelligence

P.I. Bianco

Li et al. almost submitted

AILE: the first AI-based platform for the detection and study of Light Echoes

from rare to statistical samples

Micro- and meso-lensing for stellar physics

-  detect microlensing events where both the lens and source lie in the Magellanic Clouds, and explore stellar and stellar remnant populations in another galaxy.

- LSST will investigate the mass distribution offaint objects in the local neighborhood, such as low mass dwarfs, stellar remnants, andfree-floating planets.

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

Rachel Street co-chair of TVS

Somayeh Khakpash, chair of microlensingsubgroup

Micro- and meso-lensing for stellar physics

• detect microlensing events where both the lens and source lie in the Magellanic Clouds, and explore stellar and stellar remnant populations in another galaxy.
• LSST will investigate the mass distribution offaint objects in the local neighborhood, such as low mass dwarfs, stellar remnants, andfree-floating planets.

Survey coordination

Rubin             +                Roman

Street + 2018, arxiv/1812.04445

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

Rachel Street co-chair of TVS

Somayeh Khakpash, chair of microlensingsubgroup

Micro- and meso-lensing for stellar physics

• detect microlensing events where both the lens and source lie in the Magellanic Clouds, and explore stellar and stellar remnant populations in another galaxy.
• LSST will investigate the mass distribution offaint objects in the local neighborhood, such as low mass dwarfs, stellar remnants, andfree-floating planets.

Survey coordination

Rubin             +                Roman

Street + 2018, arxiv/1812.04445

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

Rachel Street co-chair of TVS

Somayeh Khakpash, chair of microlensingsubgroup

 ZZ Cetis: 1-3% r.m.s. pulsation

(~1000 ZZ Cetis detected if pulsation 3% in r)

Pulsation stars

• The dependence of pulsational power on a star’s position in 5-color parameter space, as well as the relative pulsation amplitudes in different passbands, informs the least understood aspects of pulsation theory: mode selection and amplitude limiting mechanisms.
• The different colors provided by LSST will enable the temperature determinations. When combined with distances, it will be possible to obtain luminosities. Thus LSST will provide the opportunity to generatea pulsational H-R diagram

• Stellar Envelop Tomography of long-period variables to probe probing layers of different atmospheric depths (Alvarez 2001)... in 6 filters. But these methodologies largely rely on NIR filters, can it be done with z and Y?

• with DDF pulsations oh ~hour can be constraieds: Red Giant pulsators

K. Humbleton

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

 ZZ Cetis: 1-3% r.m.s. pulsation

(~1000 ZZ Cetis detected if pulsation 3% in r)

Pulsation stars

• The dependence of pulsational power on a star’s position in 5-color parameter space, as well as the relative pulsation amplitudes in different passbands, informs the least understood aspects of pulsation theory: mode selection and amplitude limiting mechanisms.
• The different colors provided by LSST will enable the temperature determinations. When combined with distances, it will be possible to obtain luminosities. Thus LSST will provide the opportunity to generatea pulsational H-R diagram

• Stellar Envelop Tomography of long-period variables to probe probing layers of different atmospheric depths (Alvarez 2001)... in 6 filters. But these methodologies largely rely on NIR filters, can it be done with z and Y?

• with DDF pulsations oh ~hour can be constraieds: Red Giant pulsators

K. Humbleton

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

Pulsation stars

• The dependence of pulsational power on a star’s position in 5-color parameter space, as well as the relative pulsation amplitudes in different passbands, informs the least understood aspects of pulsation theory: mode selection and amplitude limiting mechanisms.
• The different colors provided by LSST will enable the temperature determinations. When combined with distances, it will be possible to obtain luminosities. Thus LSST will provide the opportunity to generatea pulsational H-R diagram

• Stellar Envelop Tomography of long-period variables to probe probing layers of different atmospheric depths (Alvarez 2001)... in 6 filters. But these methodologies largely rely on NIR filters, can it be done with z and Y?

• with DDF pulsations oh ~hour can be constraieds: Red Giant pulsators

K. Humbleton

Jørgen Christensen-Dalsgaard for the book Asterosesimology (2010) by Conny Aerts

TVS Roadmap - in preparation

What is needed?

• Handling large data samples tools including visualization and computational resources (Rubin Science Platform also see TVS Software Workshop ) 
• Tools to deal with multi-filter light curves, e.g., developing parametric models; methods for correctly treating sparsely sampled data.
• Algorithms for photometric classification, especially at early times (in the making)
• Software to enable automatic triggering of follow-up resources (in the making)
• Additional follow-up resources (building up)
• Algorithmic development for crowded field phometry (DIA based is ok, so mostly for static science - underway See Massimo Dall'Ora and TVS task force

Mini and Micro surveys to create training data

To connect sparse photometric LSST lightcurves with excellently characterized stellar properties in the TDA

The result will be a unique dataset of∼1 million regularly spaced stellar lightcurves. The lightcurves will gives a particularly comprehensive collection of late-type stellar flaring, but also short-period binary systems and cataclysmic variables, possibly young stellar objects and ultra-short period exoplanets, and unknown anomalous behaviors.

A single night continuous survey on 1 field during commissioning

A DDF synchronized with Roman

A Carina micro-survey

Astronomy’s Discovery Chain

Discovery Engine

10M alerts/night

Community Brokers

target observation managers

the astronomy discovery chain

E. Bellm https://project.lsst.org/meetings/rubin2021/content/alert-brokers

E. Bellm https://project.lsst.org/meetings/rubin2021/content/alert-brokers

thank you!

University of Delaware

Department of Physics and Astronomy

Biden School of Public Policy and Administration

Data  Science Institute

federica bianco

fbianco@udel.edu

thank you!

University of Delaware

Department of Physics and Astronomy

Biden School of Public Policy and Administration

Data  Science Institute

federica bianco

fbianco@udel.edu

Rubin Observatory LSST 

Rubin and LEOsats

Rubin Observatory LSST 

MMA and LEOsats

Iridium satellite number 35 lit up the predawn sky west of Boston at 5 a.m. EST on February 1, 1998,  Sky & Telescope

Satellite flares

Time domain Rubin LSST science

can be mitigated:

- orientation of satellite,

- directing flares away from observer

- knowing coordinates to associate them to alerts

if not mitigate there would be bogus alerts and images ruined by saturating flares

Hainaut & Williams 2020

https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.01992

Tyson+ 2020

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.12417

modification to planned schedule carry long lasting consequences on the program

ToO enabled for GW need to scan ~100 sq deg footprint upon trigger - will be compromised

Time domain : the LSST observing strategy

Static Sky: correlated noise and cross talk

Cosmology probes are systematic dominated

mitigation: simulation of the non-linear crosstalk to measure the effect on precision cosmology and effectiveness of removal algorithms

(image credit: Canada-France Hawaii Telescope)

Tyson et al. 2020

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.12417

Xiaolong Li et al. almost submitted

AILE: the first AI-based platform for the detection and study of Light Echoes

NSF Award #2108841

Detecting and studying light echoes in the era of Rubin and Artificial Intelligence

P.I. Bianco

Pessimal AI problem:

• small training data
• inaccurate labels
• imbalance classes
• diverse morphology
• low SNR

AILE: the first AI-based platform for the detection and study of Light Echoes

YOLO + attention mechanism

precision 80% at 70% recall with a training set of 19 light echo examples! 

NSF Award #2108841

Detecting and studying light echoes in the era of Rubin and Artificial Intelligence

P.I. Bianco

Xiaolong Li et al. almost submitted

From Light Echoes to Polluting Plumes

Ian Heffner, UD MSDS

​improved image

subtraction through PCA

Pessimal AI problem:

• small training data
• inaccurate labels
• imbalance classes
• diverse morphology
• low SNR
• complex BG

Urban Observatory -

Urban Plumes

Urban Observatory -

Urban Plumes

Urban Observatory -

Urban Plumes

differenced image + AI

team:   Bea Steers, Jon Kastelan, Jack Tsai, Greg Dobler

https://cuspcapstones.github.io/Detection-of-polluting-plumes-ejected-from-NYC-buildings_2018

Research Inclusion: sonification of LSST lightcurves

Sid Patel, UD undergrad summer research project

Sonification: Data → Sound

New way of understanding data

• Can be complementary to visualizations

• Gives access to people who cannot
  interpret data visually

• Sounds cool! Good for public outreach

Research Inclusion: sonification of LSST lightcurves

Presented at 2021 Rubin Project Community Workshop (300 ppl) 

Started a new Rubin Working Group

Rubin Rhapsodies

Riley Clarke, UD