Why Estimate our Work?

Answer Important Business Questions

Better Understand Our Work

Build Trust

How do We Estimate?

Lines of Code

Function Points

Story Points

Ideal Time

WIP = Throughput x Lead time

<=>

Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time

#NoEstimates

Story Points

What's the "point!?"

Text

Problem: how long will it take your group to get from LA to NYC?

Analogy and

Calculation

(Uncertainty)

(Volume of Work)

(Complexity)

Basic

Math
Works

5 + 5 = 10

Ideal Time

All Things being Ideal...

Little's Law

Let me show you a Little somethin'...

...the time average number of customers in a queueing system, l, is equal to the rate at which customers arrive and enter the system, λ, × the average sojourn time of a customer, w.

l = λw

Work in Progres

Lead Time

and

Cycle Time

Throughput

Throughput = WIP x Lead time

<=>

Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time

Decisions to Make

Individual (or group)

vs

Team Estimates

Time First Estimates

vs

Extrapolated Time Estimates

How Precise do you need to be?

or

What happens if we're wrong?

How valuable is trust between developers and the business?

and

between our org and clients?