Karl Ho
Data Generation datageneration.io
Karl Ho
University of Texas at Dallas
Media and Party Politics in 2024 Taiwan elections
Prepared for the online meeting organized by the Sun Yat-sen School in Dallas, March 3, 2024, Dallas, USA
從2024大選看台灣媒體與政黨政治發展
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Karl Ho is:
- Professor of Instruction at University of Texas at Dallas (UTD) School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences (EPPS)
- Principal Investigator, Taiwan Studies Initiative, UTD
- Taiwan Research Academy at UTD
- BEST Huayu Scholarship at UTD
- Co-founder of the UTD Social Data Analytics and Research program (SDAR)
- Founder of DataGeneration.io
- Co-editor: Taiwan: Environment, Political and Social Issues (2021)
- Co-Principal Investigator of the Hong Kong Election Study project
- Website: karlho.com (talks, lectures, publications)
Speaker bio.
Overview
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General review of 2024 elections: over time
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Party developments:
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Party in parliament
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Party systems
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Polarization
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Media: Agenda setting control
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Data Analysis:
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Party support and voter preferences
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Electorate: structural change?
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Observations
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Implications
Introduction
The 2024 elections in Taiwan witnessed notable changes in multiple directions. First, the party system could see a "breaking the mould" moment when the third party emerges to impose durable change to the two party equilibrium. More importantly, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) builds a new constituency composed of primarily educated and young voters who strongly refuse the two major parties.
These voters will likely change the structure of the electorate divided generally on traditional issues of national identity and relationship with China. This structural change could be systemically reshaping the party system and uttering an era of "new politics" in the new democracy.
Observing Taiwan elections 2024
Observing Taiwan elections 2024
Observing Taiwan elections 2024
Observing Taiwan elections 2024
Taiwan elections 2016 - 2022
2016
2018
2022
2020
Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024
2016
2018
2022
2020
2024
Source: Taiwanplus.com
Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024
2016
2018
2022
2020
2024
Source: Taiwanplus.com
Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024
2016
2018
2022
2020
2024
Source: Taiwanplus.com
Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024
2016
2018
2022
2020
2024
Source: Taiwanplus.com
Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024
2016
2018
2022
2020
2024
2016
2018
2022
2020
Party in parliament （立委）
Party in parliament （立委）
| Party list | Constituency | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | Seats | Total seats | Change |
| DPP | 4,982,062 | 36.16 | 13 | 6,095,276 | 45.09 | 38 | 51 | –10 |
| KMT | 4,764,576 | 34.58 | 13 | 5,401,933 | 39.96 | 39 | 52 | +14 |
| TPP | 3,040,615 | 22.07 | 8 | 403,357 | 2.98 | 0 | 8 | +3 |
Observations
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2024 elections are primarily driven by expansion of middle segment (中間選民) of the electorate.
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Notable is not about how they select their choices, but how they de-select!
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These voters are well aware of the result of sending the plurality of DPP to presidency, they still insist to vote for TPP and Ko!
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Why?
Observations
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Is there "China" factor?
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Taiwan voters' indifference to China influence is notable in this election, which leads to little or no effect in DPP's campaign strategy of "China's interference".
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As a result...
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China factor operates differently in 2024 elections
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Any connections with China can be construed in campaign strategy as unpatriotic:
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China becomes liability/baggage to parties supporting China/peace/trade....
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China becomes assets/capital for parties opposed any interactions
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\rightarrow
\rightarrow
Observations
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Is there "Hong Kong" factor?
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In 2020, DPP's electoral support was greatly helped by the "Hong Kong" factor including rejection of one-country, two-systems and generally CCP coercive approach of influence through blunt force and hard power.
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Sympathetic sentiment of Hong Kong protesters and pro-democracy supporters almost absent in 2024 (except Jaw Shaw-kong's mention of Jimmy Lai during interviews)
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Volume trend (聲量趨勢）
Volume trend (聲量趨勢/月）
Volume trend (正負比): Ko
Volume trend (正負比): Ko
Volume trend (正負比): Ko
Volume trend (正負比): Hou
Volume trend (正負比): Hou
Volume trend (正負比): Lai
Volume trend (正負比): Lai
Volume trend (正負比): Lai
Political Polarization: Three Party Structure
Most important issue: Taiwan
Source: TEDS, National Chengchi University
| Issue | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Economic development | 35.19 |
| Cross-strait relations | 20.22 |
| Education policy | 13.86 |
| Judicial reform problem | 11.34 |
| Annuity reform | 5.61 |
| Transitional justice | 2.60 |
| No opinion | 2.45 |
| It's hard to say | 1.27 |
| Refuse to answer | 0.83 |
| Energy policy | 0.65 |
| House prices | 0.43 |
| National defense problem | 0.29 |
| Livelihood issues | 0.16 |
| Corruption Problem | 0.10 |
| Income inequality | 0.10 |
| Social welfare problem | 0.05 |
| Don't know | 4.84 |
| Total | 100 |
Most important issue: Taiwan
Source: TEDS, National Chengchi University
| Issue | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Economic development | 35.19 |
| Cross-strait relations | 20.22 |
| Education policy | 13.86 |
| Judicial reform problem | 11.34 |
| Annuity reform | 5.61 |
| Transitional justice | 2.60 |
| No opinion | 2.45 |
| It's hard to say | 1.27 |
| Refuse to answer | 0.83 |
| Energy policy | 0.65 |
| House prices | 0.43 |
| National defense problem | 0.29 |
| Livelihood issues | 0.16 |
| Corruption Problem | 0.10 |
| Income inequality | 0.10 |
| Social welfare problem | 0.05 |
| Don't know | 4.84 |
| Total | 100 |
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7806&id=6965
Party identification
Independence vs. Unification (統獨）
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962
Independence vs. Unification
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962
Independence vs. Unification
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962Volume trend (正負比): Party 黨
DPP (民進黨)
KMT (國民黨)
TPP (民眾黨)
Volume trend (正負比): Party 黨
DPP (民進黨)
KMT (國民黨)
TPP (民眾黨)
Observations
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New structure:
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Close to 30% of new voters show disdain of both blue and green camps (namely KMT and DPP)
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Young (middle schoolers), educated, middle class
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Flooded rallies in Taipei in support of TPP (Ko and Huang)
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Implications:
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Third party?
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Both DPP and KMT must reform!
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Taiwan Talkshows on YouTube 2024
Taiwan Talkshows on YouTube
| Program | Subscription | totalviews | novideos | viewpervideo | Channel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 關鍵時刻(劉寶傑) | 3,060,000 | 4,514,719,289 | 33500 | 134,767.74 | EBC |
| 少康戰情室(趙少康) | 1,410,000 | 1,809,366,976 | 33946 | 53,301.33 | TVBS |
| 新聞大白話(彭志宇) | 1,250,000 | 1,930,234,216 | 26,742 | 72,179.87 | TVBS |
| 新聞深喉嚨(王又正) 頭條開講 | 1,120,000 | 938,655,544 | 16206 | 57,920.25 | CTI |
| 年代向錢看(陳凝觀) | 1,070,000 | 875,671,569 | 17993 | 48,667.35 | ERA |
| 新聞挖挖哇(鄭弘儀) | 907,000 | 969,734,640 | 17914 | 54,132.78 | JET |
| 台灣最前線(許仲江) | 841,000 | 750,144,176 | 33671 | 22,278.64 | FTV |
| 國民大會(于美人) | 626,000 | 423,730,053 | 12055 | 35,149.73 | TVBS |
| 新聞龍捲風 | 594,000 | 409,607,276 | 4814 | 85,086.68 | CTI |
| 大政治大爆卦 | 545000 | 424,621,139 | 15318 | 35,149.73 | CTI |
Who puts "柯文哲" to headlines?
| TVBS NEWS | 61 | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|
| 中天新聞 | 47 | 8.3% |
| 東森新聞 CH51 | 45 | 8.0% |
| CNEWS匯流新聞網 | 40 | 7.1% |
| 柯文哲 | 39 | 6.9% |
| 中時新聞網 | 31 | 5.5% |
| 台視新聞 TTV NEWS | 22 | 3.9% |
| 三立LIVE新聞 | 19 | 3.4% |
| 關鍵時刻 | 15 | 2.7% |
| TVBS選新聞 | 14 | 2.5% |
| 風傳媒 The Storm Media | 14 | 2.5% |
| Bit King比特王出任務 | 10 | 1.8% |
| 華視新聞 CH52 | 10 | 1.8% |
Who puts "柯文哲" to headlines?
Implications
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Will Taiwan break the mold and become a three party system?
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Three-player game should lead to a result of coalition with two of the three players (e.g. Britain in 2010).
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In the Taiwan case, building coalition had a bad record, thus unlikely to build a stable government without majority.
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How likely the new government can improve cross-Strait relations?
Implications: Media
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Who will be most affected by media on political decisions?
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How?
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Media is in control of agenda setting.
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It may not help voters select whom. But it will help voters de-select whom!
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How the three parties reform in next two to four years will determine Taiwan future party development and system
Implications: Parties
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How to effectively move voters and rebuild constituent support?
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Young voters?
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More educated voters?
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Tondu issues?
Thank you!
Questions and comments are welcome!
Media and Party Politics in 2024 Taiwan elections
By Karl Ho
