BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
BLOOMBERG
Package of 2 or 3 previews¹ of the Brazilian Economic Uncertainty Indicator. This indicator is a measure of Brazilian economic uncertainty and its calculation is based on news as well as business forecasts.
¹ This is due to the fact that we have to wait until the second Wednesday of each month to assure the IIE-BR Forecasts Disagreement.
IIE-Br Media is a proxy that measures economic uncertainty according to the frequency in which articles on the subject appear in six major Brazilian newspapers. The last four values of this time series are available on FGV press release.
IIE-Br Forecasts Disagreement is an indicator based on information from the market's expectations series produced by the Central Bank and published in the Focus Report. The last four values of this time series are available on FGV press release.
IIE-Br Politics is a proxy that measures economic uncertainty related to politics according to the frequency in which articles on the subject appear in six major Brazilian newspapers.
IIE-Br Fiscal is a proxy that measures fiscal economic uncertainty related according to the frequency in which articles on the subject appear in six major Brazilian newspapers.
RELEVANT STUDIES
Does uncertainty impacts private investments ? An empirical analysis of the data for Brazil.
This study relates de IIE-Br with the Brazilian private investments time series. It shows that high uncertainty impacts negatively the private investments.
https://urlzs.com/uBfEs
Author: Pedro Ferreira et al.
Brazilian neutral interest rate estimate
One of the results of this study shows that high uncertainty reduces the neutral interest rate as it acts as an expressive headwind for the aggregate demand. The proxy used for uncertainty is the IIE-Br.
Author: Braulio Borges
The effects of uncertainty on Economic Activity in Brazil
This study aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the Brazilian Economic Activity. It shows that high uncertainty impacts negatively the private investments. It shows that the levels of uncertainty in Brazil suince the presidential elections of 2014 represent an important factor behind the subsequent recession.
https://urlzs.com/Kvuid
Author: Ricardo Barbosa et al.
The results indicate that the shocks of the Brazilian monetary policy are more effective in impacting the product and the inflation over the period of low uncertainty.
https://urlzs.com/ioocd
Author: Filipe Santos et al.
Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetaty policy in Brazil
RELEVANT STUDIES
The impact of uncertainty chocks on the fiscal situation of Brazil
This work shows that uncertainty shocks cause a deficit in the federal government's primary result with persistence of more than 40 months.
https://urlzs.com/v1bqr
Author: Rafael Barbosa
RELEVANT STUDIES
One of the results obtained showed that the forecast of Brazilian GDP gaps becomes better with the inclusion of uncertainty variables in the IS curve.
https://urlzs.com/VNseQ
Author: Ilan Parnes et al.
Measures of uncertainty and their impact on forecasting the Brazilian Output Gap
Pedro Costa Fereira
pedro.guilherme@fgv.br
[+55 21 971054843]
OBRIGADO!
Bloomberg
By Raíra Marotta
