CONSTRUCTION CAPITAL RESEARCH
Planning risk in a development appraisal
Q3 2026 | Approval rates and pipeline definitions
Matt Lenzie | 5 October 2026
What the planning panel covers
253 matched authorities in England and Wales, including seven Welsh authorities.
The comparison holds coverage constant between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026. Seven custom regional groups support the decomposition.
This is a partial administrative panel. It does not estimate the probability that a particular scheme will obtain consent.
Construction Capital • Q3 2026 • 2/8
The panel approval rate fell by 3.58 points
Approved / (approved + refused). Unknown outcomes excluded; withdrawals separate.
Construction Capital • Q3 2026 • 3/8
Within-region changes explain most of the decline
Magnitudes of negative contributions: 3.29 + 0.29 = 3.58 percentage points. Descriptive, not causal.
Construction Capital • Q3 2026 • 4/8
A definition change reverses the East of England result
Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025. East: 19 authorities; full panel: 253. Unit mentions are not unique homes.
Construction Capital • Q3 2026 • 5/8
The appraisal needs the underlying application
The approval-rate change describes decisions in the panel. The unit-mention result depends on the application definition.
A site appraisal needs its own planning status, conditions, consent stage and evidence of whether recorded units refer to the same proposal.
The reserved-matters filter does not prove duplication. Neither planning measure predicts construction starts or completions.
Construction Capital • Q3 2026 • 6/8
Planning evidence and Development Finance
Planning status is one part of a funding application. Comparable sales, build costs and proposed funding terms require separate evidence.
The Q3 regional report supplies wider context. The Development Finance guide explains the funding process.
Construction Capital • Q3 2026 • 7/8
Sources and related research
These are Construction Capital publications using related source material, not independent endorsements. The linked releases provide the backing tables, methods and code.
Original presentation text: CC BY 4.0. Source data rights and licences remain as stated in each deposit.
Construction Capital • Q3 2026 • 8/8
Planning risk in a development appraisal | Q3 2026
By constructioncapital
Planning risk in a development appraisal | Q3 2026
A Construction Capital research briefing on approval-rate change, regional composition and planning-pipeline definitions. Based on a matched panel of 253 authorities in England and Wales. Includes backing data, methods and related Q3 studies, with practical context for development finance. Matt Lenzie, 5 October 2026.
