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THE EFFECT OF SOCIAL MEDia IN school shootings
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Javier García-Bernardo
University of Amsterdam
April 8th, 2019
December 14th, 2012 : Sandy Hook Attack
Since then: 217 school shootings (95 fatal)
Visualization: https://everytownresearch.org/school-shootings
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Visualization: https://everytownresearch.org/school-shootings
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There is no accurate or useful profile of students who engaged in targeted school violence
Visualization: https://everytownresearch.org/school-shootings
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MOTIVATION: attacks cluster in time
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MOTIVATION: attacks cluster in time
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MOTIVATION: attacks cluster in time
we wanted to understand why they cluster:
- Collected data on school shootings from different sources
- Collected all tweets mentioning "school shooting"
- Look at how social media influences school shootings
- Model the frequency of attacks to understand the behaviour of the attackers.
spoilers:
- Social media chatter increases the risk of new attacks
- Those induced attacks are different
SOCIAL MEDIA AFFECTS the propensity of new attacks
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Copycat effect
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modeling the different types of attack
FIRST model
RED QUEEN VERSuS BLUE KING
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N. F. Johnson, et al., Scientific reports 3, 3463 (2013).
Idea:
- There is a competition between the attackers and the prevention forces.
- The attacks accelerate or decelerate depending on the balance of forces.
What can we do this this model:
- Predict the time until the next attack
- Understand what type of attacks we can expect (characteristics, severity)
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Attacks that happen before they "should" are different
modeling THE LOcation and timing
HAWKES PROCESS
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D. Marsan, O. Lengliné, Science 319, 1076 (2008).
A. G. Hawkes, D. Oakes, Journal of Applied Probability pp. 493–503 (1974).
Idea:
-
Each attack increases the probability of new attacks.
- But that effect may reduce over time or distance
- We can compare the real data with "null models", where attacks happen at random.
What can we do this this model:
- Understand where to focus prevention efforts
- Quantify the time until things go back to normal
second model
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distance component
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distance component
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time component
- The concept of school shooter in the US is well established.
- Popular media matters too: "to go NBK on a school"
- Schools shooters do not need to be creative.
- We show limited contagion, but only for a extreme group of people:
- School shootings cluster in time, but not in space.
- School shootings get media attention, which in turn affect the probability of new attacks (copycat effect).
- We can classify the behaviour of the attackers
- Induced attacks: Low mortality and suicide rate, happening in the two weeks after an attack.
- Other: High mortality and suicide rate, happening often after periods of inactivity.
Paper:arxiv: 1506.06305
corpnet.uva.nl
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@javiergb_com
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javiergb.com
corpnet@uva.nl
garcia@uva.nl
This presentation: slides.com/jgarciab/ss19
CONCLUSIONS
cssAmsterdam.github.io
School shootings
By Javier GB
School shootings
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