The Impact of Concurrent Campaigns on Referendum Voting:
The Case of Taiwan in 2018
Ting-wei Weng
Tsung-han Tsai
Ying-lung Chou
Ching-hsin Yu
Prepared for discussion at the APSA CGOTS Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, September 5, 2024
Discussion:
Discussant: Karl Ho
University of Texas at Dallas
Summary
Research Focus:
The paper investigates the effect of concurrent elections, particularly how a referendum vote is influenced when held alongside a higher-order election, such as a mayoral election.
focuses on Taiwan's 2018 election, where local elections and a multi-question referendum were held concurrently, with special attention to Taichung City.
Key Findings
Influence of Higher-Order Elections:
Referendum voting is significantly influenced by voter preferences toward political figures (such as mayors and parties) rather than the specific issues posed in the referendum.
Voters who supported the incumbent mayor (Lin Chia-lung) were less likely to participate in or approve of the referendum initiated by the challenger (Lu Shiow-yen), demonstrating that referendums become a tool for expressing approval or disapproval of politicians rather than issue-based voting.
Key Findings
Partisanship:
Partisanship played a crucial role in referendum voting. Voters leaning toward the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were less likely to approve the referendum questions, while those dissatisfied with President Tsai Ing-wen were more likely to approve the questions.
Key Findings
Limited Issue-Based Voting:
Contrary to expectations, attitudes toward the specific issue (e.g., air pollution) were not significantly correlated with voting decisions on the referendum question. Instead, political preferences were the dominant factor.
Key Findings
Concurrent Elections and Voter Turnout:
While holding elections concurrently increased overall voter turnout, it did so at the cost of reducing the salience of the referendum itself. Voters focused more on the higher-order mayoral election, allowing political attitudes to overshadow issue-based considerations.
Implications:
Referendums may fail to fulfill their intended purpose of facilitating issue-based democratic decision-making when held alongside more prominent elections.
Instead, they become tools for expressing political preferences about higher-order candidates and parties.
In question: efficacy of referendums as a mechanism for direct democracy, particularly when they are held concurrently with other elections.
Discussion: CGOTS 2024 Weng et al. The Impact of Concurrent Campaigns on Referendum Voting: The Case of Taiwan in 2018
By Karl Ho
Discussion: CGOTS 2024 Weng et al. The Impact of Concurrent Campaigns on Referendum Voting: The Case of Taiwan in 2018