Social and Political Data Science: Introduction

Karl Ho

University of Texas at Dallas

Early voting and post-election prospects: some observations

Prepared for Special class delivered to Soochow University, October 28, 2024

Speaker bio.

Background

  • The U.S. president is not elected by popular vote but through the Electoral College, a unique feature among democracies. This system was established by the U.S. Constitution as a compromise, allowing states to have proportional influence based on their population while maintaining federal balance.

Electoral College

  • The Electoral College comprises 538 electors, with each state’s allotment based on its congressional representation (House and Senate seats). A majority of 270 votes is required to win the presidency.

Swing/battleground states

  • Key swing states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Early voting

3. Why Early Voting Matters

    1.    Access and Representation

Early voting provides greater access to individuals who face barriers on Election Day, including working voters, people with disabilities, and those in remote areas. Increased access through early voting can enhance democratic representation and inclusivity.

    2.    Impact on Election Dynamics

    •    Early voting changes how candidates and parties campaign. With ballots being cast before traditional “October surprises,” campaigns must frontload their strategies and manage voter perceptions earlier.

    •    Analyzing early voting data also helps pollsters and strategists forecast turnout and identify demographic trends, although early data often leads to complex interpretations due to the varying reliability of partisan turnout trends.

 

Early voting

Since electoral laws vary by state, some states have earlier start date than others.

Absentee ballot vs. mail in ballot

Absentee voting

Although most states have absentee voting, deadlines and rules on who can take part vary. Some states require an excuse to vote absentee. Others do not. In most states, you must request an absentee ballot to vote in each election. But in some states, you may qualify to sign up to receive absentee ballots for every election. Learn if your state offers permanent absentee voting.

Vote-by-mail

Instead of absentee voting programs, some states offer vote-by-mail (also known as all-mail) programs. They automatically send ballots to all registered voters in the state before Election Day. See which states offer vote-by-mail programs.

Source: https://www.usa.gov/absentee-voting

Early voting

Early voting

Early voting

Post-election prospects

  • In the United States
    • Red wall vs. Blue wall
    • Congress
    • Domestic policy
      • Inflation/economy
      • Illegal immigrants
      • Energy

 

Post-election prospects

Source: Economist

Source: AP

Thank you!

Questions and comments are welcome!

Early voting and post-election prospects: some observations

By Karl Ho

Early voting and post-election prospects: some observations

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