Managing pathogen spillover at the wildlife-livestock interface

Kezia Manlove, Paul Cross, Ryan Miller, Steve Sweeney, Tom Besser, & Frances Cassirer

Goal

Develop a general quantitative model to describe pathogen spillover risk at the wildlife-livestock interface

Reservoir

Recipient

Index case

Onward transmission

Spillover process

Reservoir

Recipient

Index case

Onward transmission

(...or livestock into wildlife)

Plowright et al. 2017 Nat Rev Micro

Potentially relevant factors

Between-host transmission in reservoir

Interspecific contact

Pathogen establishment

Between-host processes

Pathogen movement and amplification in reservoir

Epidemic growth rate in recipient

Movement restrictions in reservoir

Attractant management

Density reductions

Zoning in recipient

Depopulation/Stamping out

 

Phytosanitary controls

Biosecurity

Preventive vaccination

Test/Cull reservoir

Treatment

Retroactive vaccination

Management Strategies

Less certainty in space

Less time to act

Distance host could move while infected

Epidemic growth rate

Reduce reservoir prevalence or density

Stop onward transmission:

stamping out or targeted vaccination

Reduce interspecific contact: biosecurity

Two questions

2. Where do actual systems fit on these axes?

1. Do management predictions hold up in silico?

Distance host moves while infected

Epidemic growth rate

Biosecurity

Manage in reservoir

Stamp-out in recipient

Does the framework hold up?

Reservoir movement and disease

Interspecific contact & spillover

Recipient movement and disease

Parameters:

     Epidemic growth rate

     Contact structure

Natural disease process

Management experiments

Disease parameter space

Epidemic growth rate

Dispersion of movement kernel

Increasing dispersion

 

Increasing epidemic growth rate

 

Colors ramp according to first day cell became infected

Outputs

1) Number of reservoir patches infected

2) Number of recipient patches infected

3) Total recipients infected over whole simulation

Management

Vaccination:

Depopulation:

Test-cull:

Biosecurity:

Adjust recipient SIR state-space so that R goes up, and S goes down

Reset recipient patch to S = 1, I = 0, R = 0

If prevalence exceeds some threshold...

Adjust reservoir SIR state-space so that R goes up, and S goes down

Decrease interspecific contact rates at designated patches

Apply management up to threshold investment (in $$), then stop managing

Increasingly aggregated

 

 

Increasingly aggregated

 

 

Transmission coefficient

(prop. to epidemic growth rate)

Transmission coefficient

(prop. to epidemic growth rate)

Does this hold empirically?

Where do actual systems fit?

Wildlife-Livestock systems

African swine fever

Canine distemper virus

Rinderpest*

Tularemia

Rabies

Brucellosis

M.ovi

Avian influenza

Classical swine fever

Salmonella

Foot and Mouth disease

Echinococcus

Paratuberculosis

Scrapie

Anthrax

bTB

Q fever

West Nile virus

Pseudorabies virus

Bluetongue virus

Human systems

Measles

HIV

SARS

Polio

Rubella

Smallpox

Pertussis

Diphtheria

Chickenpox

Multihost systems

Phocine distemper virus

Lyme disease

Plague

 

Pathogen type

dsRNA viruses

Bluetongue

 

dsDNA viruses

African swine fever

Chickenpox

Smallpox

 

ssRNA viruses

Rinderpest

Rabies

Phocine, Canine distempers

Avian influenza

Classical swine fever

Food and Mouth disease

West Nile virus

Measles

SARS

Polio

Rubella

 

Tapeworm

Echinococcus

Bacteria

Tularemia

Q fever

Brucellosis

Movi

Salmonella

Movi

Anthrax

Paratuberculosis

Pertussis

Diphtheria

bTB

 

Pathogen type

Mode of transmission

Exudate discharge

Classical swine fever

Pseudorabies virus

Canine distemper virus

 

Saliva

Diphtheria

 

Bites

Rabies

 

Aerosolized

Foot and Mouth disease

Q fever

 

Respiratory droplets

Chickenpox

Rinderpest

Phocine distemper

M.ovi

Measles

SARS

Rubella

Smallpox

Pertussis

 

Fecal-oral

Echinococcus

Avian influenza

Salmonella

Polio

 

Vectored

African swine fever

Tularemia

West Nile virus

Bluetongue

 

Environmental

Anthrax

Paratuberculosis

Scrapie

bTB

 

 

Pathogen Reservoir host Time to recovery/death (days) Potential movement during I
Avian influenza mallards 360 km
Rabies raccoons ~ 35  1-2 km
Brucellosis elk 730 (100 km?)
BHS pneumonia (bighorn?) sheep 20  25 km
bTB white-tailed deer 730 15 km
Bluetongue Culicoides spp.  20.6 150 km
ASF warthogs 20-40 

Movement potential while infected

Depopulation

Test-cull

Distance host could move while infected

Reducing reservoir prevalence or density

Halting onward transmission

Reducing interspecific contact through  biosecurity on recipient

Epidemic growth rate

Is this useful?

To-do:

  • Finish parameterization
  • Expand empirical dataset
  • Sensitivities to investment, premise size, reservoir density

Questions?

t = 1

X

(\tau)
(τ)(\tau)
\tau = 1
τ=1\tau = 1

Deterministic disease updates

t = 1

t = 2

Hosts move according to kernel

Mover's infection status depends on prevalence

Stochastic movement updates

(\tau)
(τ)(\tau)
(\tau)
(τ)(\tau)
\tau = 2
τ=2\tau = 2
\tau = 1
τ=1\tau = 1

t = 2

Deterministic disease updates

Spillover

Random subset of patches chosen to harbor "recipient hosts"

Recipients get infected following random contacts with infected LOCAL reservoir hosts

Recipient map

Reservoir map

Recipient map

General Framework - V2

By Kezia Manlove

General Framework - V2

Proposed general framework for considering spillover risk at the Wildlife-Livestock interface. June 8, 2017; K. Manlove, preparer.

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