# Social Media affects the Timing, Location, and Severity of School Shootings

Javier Garcia-Bernardo

J. Garcia-Bernardo, H. Qi, J. M. Shultz, A. M. Cohen, N. F. Johnson, P. S. Dodds

http://arxiv.org/abs/1506.06305

### Dec 14th, 2012: Sandy Hook ATTACK.

Since then: 194 school shootings.

`Visualization: https://everytownresearch.org/school-shootings`

`Visualization: https://everytownresearch.org/school-shootings`

`Visualization: https://everytownresearch.org/school-shootings`

# Do school shootings cluster in time?

## DATA description: clustering

## DATA description: heavy TAILS

# Do school shootings cluster in space?

# Do school shootings affect the timing of new attacks?

# Do school shootings affect the timing of new attacks through media?

## Copycat effect

# can we model all this?

# FIRST model

## RED VERSuS BLUE

*N. F. Johnson, et al., Scientific reports 3, 3463 (2013).*

# FIRST model

## RED VERSuS BLUE

*N. F. Johnson, et al., Scientific reports 3, 3463 (2013).*

Interevent time between attacks n-1 and n

# FIRST model

## RED VERSuS BLUE

*N. F. Johnson, et al., Scientific reports 3, 3463 (2013).*

Interevent time between attacks n-1 and n

Attack number

# FIRST model

## RED VERSuS BLUE

*N. F. Johnson, et al., Scientific reports 3, 3463 (2013).*

Interevent time between attacks n-1 and n

Escalation rate

Attack number

College

College

K12

### What can we do with this model:

### - UNDERSTAND TRENDS, focus efforts on campuses.

### - understand WHAT TYPE OF ATTACKS ARE COMING.

# SECOND model

## HAWKES PROCESS

*D. Marsan, O. Lengliné, Science 319, 1076 (2008).*

*A. G. Hawkes, D. Oakes, Journal of Applied Probability pp. 493–503 (1974).*

# SECOND model

## HAWKES PROCESS

*D. Marsan, O. Lengliné, Science 319, 1076 (2008).*

*A. G. Hawkes, D. Oakes, Journal of Applied Probability pp. 493–503 (1974).*

Attack rate at space point *x *and time *t*

# SECOND model

## HAWKES PROCESS

*D. Marsan, O. Lengliné, Science 319, 1076 (2008).*

*A. G. Hawkes, D. Oakes, Journal of Applied Probability pp. 493–503 (1974).*

Attack rate at space point *x *and time *t*

Base attack rate

# SECOND model

## HAWKES PROCESS

*D. Marsan, O. Lengliné, Science 319, 1076 (2008).*

*A. G. Hawkes, D. Oakes, Journal of Applied Probability pp. 493–503 (1974).*

Attack rate at space point *x *and time *t*

Base attack rate

Influence of previous attacks

### distance component

### time component

### What can we do with this model:

### - focus efforts on federal prevention programs.

### - quantify the time decay.

# Conclusions

1. School shootings cluster in time, but not in space (except within-town attacks).

2. School shootings get media attention, which in turn affect the probability of new attacks (copycat effect).

3. We can model the relationship in several ways:

3.1. Blue vs Red model:

- We find distinct trends in school shootings (College vs K12)

- The outliers in the model have distinctive characteristics.

3.2. Hawkes process:

- The attacks are randomly distributed in space (except within-town).

- The attacks increase the probability of new attacks during months.

# Conclusions

1. School shootings cluster in time, but not in space (except within-town attacks).

2. School shootings get media attention, which in turn affect the probability of new attacks (copycat effect).

3. We can model the relationship in several ways:

3.1. Blue vs Red model:

- We find distinct trends in school shootings (College vs K12)

- The outliers in the model have distinctive characteristics.

3.2. Hawkes process:

- The attacks are randomly distributed in space (except within-town).

- The attacks increase the probability of new attacks during months.

# Conclusions

1. School shootings cluster in time, but not in space (except within-town attacks).

2. School shootings get media attention, which in turn affect the probability of new attacks (copycat effect).

3. We can model the relationship in several ways:

3.1. Blue vs Red model:

- We find distinct trends in school shootings (College vs K12)

- The outliers in the model have distinctive characteristics.

3.2. Hawkes process:

- The attacks are randomly distributed in space (except within-town).

- The attacks increase the probability of new attacks during months.

# Conclusions

1. School shootings cluster in time, but not in space (except within-town attacks).

3. We can model the relationship in several ways:

3.1. Blue vs Red model:

- We find distinct trends in school shootings (College vs K12)

- The outliers in the model have distinctive characteristics.

3.2. Hawkes process:

- The attacks are randomly distributed in space (except within-town).

- The attacks increase the probability of new attacks during months.

# THANK YOU

1. School shootings cluster in time, but not in space (except within-town attacks).

3. We can model the relationship in several ways:

3.1. Blue vs Red model:

- We find distinct trends in school shootings (College vs K12)

- The outliers in the model have distinctive characteristics.

3.2. Hawkes process:

- The attacks are randomly distributed in space (except within-town).

- The attacks increase the probability of new attacks during months.

`http://bit.ly/2d7N3Qr`

`arxiv: 1506.06305`

@uvaCORPNET // @javiergb_com garcia@uva.nl

#### CCS_school_shootings

By Javier GB