• Why Taiwan, Hong Kong matter to US National Security?

• What is at stake?

• Clear danger: Hong Kong

• Present danger: Taiwan

• US Policies that can put national security at risk:

  • Ambiguity

  • Agenda setting power

  • Appeasement

• Scenarios

Overview

• 1938 Munich agreement

• China to prosecute first foreigner over Hong Kong ‘meddling’
  • Reuter

Side note

"Hong Kong National Security Day"

"Hong Kong National Security Day"

Source: The Guardian

"Hong Kong National Security Day"

Hong Kong Identity: Hongkonger

Chinese

Hongkonger

• Population: ~ 7 million

  • About 85,000 Americans (State Department)

• 1,300 US firms

• Single largest U.S. trading partner on trade surplus

• Hong Kong's currency system and finance

  • pegged to US dollars

  • Highest foreign reserve (per capita) in the world: ~$500 billion

  • Funds/reserve in government: ~US$200 billion

  • Stock market capitalization: ~US$6 trillion

US National interest in Hong Kong

• Hong Kong is the the biggest trading partner with US, but Hong Kong is safest window to trade with China:

  • British legal system

  • Bilingual society

  • Laissez faire system 

• 2021 is the watershed:
  • Hong Kong, which was ranked second for the first time in the history of the Index in 2020 after ranking first for 25 years, was not ranked in this year’s Index, which now includes only countries exercising full sovereign control over their economic policies.
                                                                                   - Heritage foundation​

US National interest in Hong Kong

• US interest in Hong Kong diminishing

  • US sold consulate properties in HK at $330 million, only 5 percent of  estimated value (US$5.3 billion)

  • American Chamber of Commerce survey finds businesses in Hong Kong pessimistic about outlook for 2021

• If Hong Kong loses its current international position:

  • US has to find alternatives to trade with China

  • China will leverage Hong Kong's special status affecting US dollars.

  • Blow to American interest and value:

    • Wilson "Doctrine of Self Determination"

    • Democracy, Market economy and Freedom

US National interest in Hong Kong

• Population: ~ 23 million

  • ~ 12,691 Americans (Taiwan immigration)

• Taiwan economy

  • sixth highest foreign reserve: ~$540 billion

  • GDP (PPP): US$1.3 trillion (1/16 of US)

  • 10th largest U.S. goods trading partner supporting over 200,000 jobs in US

  • Leaders of the global high-end semi-conductor market

US National interest in Taiwan

• US troops in Asia

  • 131,000
  • Japan, South Korea, Singapore

US National interest in Taiwan

Source: Today's Military

• US troops in Asia

  • 131,000
  • Japan, South Korea, Singapore

US National interest in Taiwan

Okinawa

Clear Danger: Hong Kong

Taiwan and Hong Kong

• Bills passed related to Taiwan and Hong Kong

  • Taiwan Relations Act 

  • Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act

  • Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act

  • Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act 

  • Hong Kong Victims of Communism Support Act

  • Hong Kong Safe Harbor Act

• Bipartisan consensus

• Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Strong Republican influence)

• Daily threat by PLAAF

• High stake:

  • Semiconductor production and technologies

  • US weapon systems

  • Pivot/critical geopolitical location for Japan, ASEAN and US troops in Pacific

Present Danger: Taiwan

• PLA flies 25 warplanes into its air defence zone in largest incursion yet

• PLA response to Taiwan air force: "Get used to it"

• Chinese Fighter Pilot Says Taiwan 'All Ours' After Being Asked to Leave Airspace

• US troops in South China Sea
   

US and PLA vessels near collision in South China Sea in September: South China Morning Post

Thank you!

Questions and comments are welcome!

Proposed Prescriptions

• Address root problem of COVID

• Clear and resolute actions: 

  • Full confrontation

  • Increase investment in Military 

  • Build and consolidate strategic allies:

    • Taiwan

    • Vietnam

    • the Philippines

    • Malaysia and Singapore

• Full understanding of China policy tools

  • Soft and sharp powers

• Rebuild US media influence in Asia 

Question

Q: Isn't Hong Kong China's territory?  Why bother interfering China's own internal affairs?

A: Hong Kong was turned over to China based on China-British Joint Declaration in 1984, a treaty listing all conditions China must fulfill so Britain will return Hong Kong (including the fully British territory of the Hong Kong island):

• Hong Kong will have full democracy by 2007
• Hong Kong autonomy
• Hong Kong system unchanged for 50 years

These terms have been entirely broken and British Prime Minister Johnson recognized that.

Question

Q: Isn't it Britain's responsibility on Hong Kong?  Why it is related to US interest and national security?

A: Johnson has issued new visa policy to help 3 million BNO holders in Hong Kong.  This is considered extreme measures to save Hong Kong people who are seeking refuge/asylum (already happening).   US has parallel measures, indicating US government's recognition of magnitude of the problem.  Yet, if US is using passive voice on Hong Kong and Taiwan, we are only waiting for the Munich Agreement moment to come, taking ambiguity positions to allow aggressors to strike any time.

What is Thucydides Trap?

Graham Allison coined the phrase "Thucydides Trap" to refer to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war. Thucydides wrote: "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."

Source: Berggruen Institute