JSM 2015

"Quantifying and Improving Referee Decision-Making in Sports"

Trey Causey
@treycausey
 

Acknowledgments

Bias across sports

• Altman: Premier League teams average 0.57 points more at home than away
• (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, 0 points for a loss)
• Home field advantage is huge -- mostly due to refs

Core of the problem

• Principals have goals
• They need agents to act on their behalf
• Incentives don't align
• Monitoring and sanctioning is costly
   
• ... and cognitive biases

What can be done?

How to provide feedback?

Overall technical comments

• GAMS/CV
• Out-of-sample predictions?
• Effect sizes, p-values, plots
• Inline figures
• Extrapolation to substantive outcomes

Individual comments